Replies to post #78012 on Biotech Values

[microcapfun]

>>But reporting the quarterly procedure count selectively, which is what ISRG evidently does, suggests to me that they do indeed have something to hide.<<

Again, Intuitive is not the sort of company which hides bad things; it is more likely to point out possible bad things which never occur (beyond what are typically seen in 10-Q risk factors).

But there is no reason you would or should believe me. The conservative nature of management is something that requires following the company seriously for at least a few years. (Which, by the way, is why I like to follow companies for a decade or more, even if they fail to meet my initial expectations. It gives me a significant advantage in interpreting information correctly.)


>>Based on the financial metrics that ISRG did report for 4Q08, I would be willing to bet money that the procedure count in 1Q09 was less than in 4Q08.<<

Alright, Dew. How much money would you like to bet?

>>First quarter revenues by product category are as follows: First quarter instrument and accessory revenue was $79.5 million, up 29% compared with $61.9 million for the first quarter of 2008, and down 3% compared with $81.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2008. The change compared with the first quarter of last year was driven by the 60% procedure growth partially offset by the revenue deferral of $2.1 million and lower instrument and accessory revenue per procedure. The change compared with the fourth quarter reflects increased procedure volume more than offset by the revenue deferral of $2.1 million and lower revenue per procedure.

The amount of instrument and accessory revenue we realized per procedure including initial stocking orders and adding back the deferred revenue of $2.1 million was approximately $1800 per procedure, down approximately $200 per procedure compared to the fourth quarter and down approximately $400 per procedure compared to last year.<< (Q1 cc)

I'm looking for about a 50% increase in procedure count (not I&A revenue) from 2008 to 2009. Do you want to guess the procedure count will be down from 2008? We can compare our predictions to reality in January 2010.

Regards,

micro