Replies to post #78015 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ISRG – You could’ve sprung that quoted passage on me and won some serious money (like a 3-month iHub membership), but you didn’t. So you’re a nice guy but you’re probably not a poker (or backgammon) player :- ) Based on the new information you furnished, I’m revising my contention to say there was but a token growth in procedures from 4Q08 to 1Q09—not a growth rate commensurate with what most investors would consider appropriate for a bona fide growth company.

micro, you keep dancing around my questions by saying that management is “conservative,” and you have yet to furnish one good reason why ISRG reported the procedure count for 1Q09 and the procedure count for full-year 2008, but not the procedure count for 4Q08. What possible reason for such selective reporting can there be other than management's being embarrassed by anemic quarter-over-quarter growth?

I'm looking for about a 50% increase in procedure count (not I&A revenue) from 2008 to 2009. Do you want to guess the procedure count will be down from 2008?

I’ll bet you a 3-month iHub membership that they don’t grow full-year 2009 procedures by as much the 50% you expect. Ok?

In summary, my suspicion is that ISRG’s business is showing signs of flatlining and management is going to great lengths to mask this from the investment community. Management’s carefully cultivated reputation for conservative guidance helps enormously at times like this by assuring that longstanding investors will give management the benefit of the doubt.