Replies to post #77996 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

With the logic that PI's have generally gotten higher log reductions (than Polymerases) perhaps 2 complimentary PI's could yield an even more staggering first day drop.

From a resistance standpoint, you might be hard-pressed to find two HCV PI’s that are genuinely complementary, so I don’t think this idea will fly.

[mcbio]

Re: VRUS - 3rd HCV Drug in an All-Oral Cocktail

Thanks for the response ghmm. It strikes me that, given the resistance profiles and how the HIV market has played out, that the nukes have more promise in HCV than the PIs. I remember listening to a prior IDIX conference call and they seemed much more optimistic on their nuke candidate than the PI. I'm pretty sure that was related to the resistance profiles of the two classes.

Also, I like the fact that VRUS is potentially first to market in their respective class whereas ITMN is clearly behind telaprevir in the PI space. Granted, they may be able to overcome this if ITMN-191 proves to be a better compound, but I don't think they've proven that yet.

Finally, as has been noted before, ITMN isn't a pure HCV play. And I think Pirfenidone has a good chance of not being approved the first time around given the dramatically different results they saw in their Phase 3 results. Notwithstanding, if the drug is not approved on the first go around, it could represent a good buying opportunity for the stock.

All of this IMHO. I've clearly been wrong of late. See ACHN for a perfect example. lol

[Smooth]

Why not add NNVC to the cocktail mix for HIV? I know it's a LOOOOONG shot as things now stand, but in time, it may truly be the answer.