If I might add a couple of thoughts to your excellent post: It is instructive that the supply of oil has become so tight that any one country aside from SA can impact the price simply by threat of the withdrawal of one to one and half million barrels a day. This is evidence not of a conspiracy, but of a demand driven market with little spare capacity. It is probably disingenuous for France, they get 80% of their electricity from nuclear power, but Europe needs to consider establishing an SPR. India and China are already constructing theirs. Some of the other Asian and Pacific countries are discussing pooling their efforts to build one for their needs.
A global expansion based on a monumental credit bubble. This cannot last and the aftermath will be horrendous IMHO no matter who wins in November. In fact the winner might envy the loser. But it was fun while it lasted.
That said reasonable chance of a final strong rally before everything falls apart.