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03/22/09 11:36 AM

#618000 RE: Bruce A Thompson #617996

What makes you think I believe the media hype at all? I caught on the mortgage-housing debacle long before the media did. I started shorting home builders in the summer of 2005, after seeing the crap building standards that they were engaged in for very expensive houses; I knew it was a bubble. I covered my shorts in early 2008 . . . too early, I suppose, largely because I saw the the media was catching on (yes, trade against, or at least avoid, the media hype is what I usually do)

Why is having only 22 cars on the lot a bad thing in this economy? The dealership is being smart. People are not buying cars. Cars are depreciating assets that literally rot on the lot. Why should the dealerships be full of unsold cars on the lot, eating capital cost either at the expense of the dealer/mfr or savers who get ripped off by an artificially low interest rate. If anything, JIT for automobile distribution may just be a fortuitous advancement as a result of this depression. The dealership only needs one V-8 Impala (if any V8 or any Impala at all is needed) for test driving; then the consumer can order the color and spec that he wants . . . would lead to more choices and more customization too as the mfr would have to develop a tighter JIT manufacturing and distribution system. Overall, that will be less resources wasted in the whole distribution chain, as there will be less cars sitting out there to rot and get discounted eventually.

Like I said, the subprime bubble and collapse is only a symptom, of the much bigger bubble caused by the FED, not the cause per se.