Replies to post #74099 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Both phase-3 Albuferon trials met the prespecified statistical thresholds for non-inferiority to Pegasys; however, both trials had point estimates for Albuferon SVR that were worse than those for Pegasys: 48.2% vs 51.0% (a delta of -280 basis points) in the genotype-1 trial; and 79.8% vs. 84.8% (a delta of -500 basis points) in the genotype-2/3 trial (#msg-34043876).

In other words, Albuferon ought to be a shoe-in to be FDA approved, but these phase-3 trials have not exactly provided the kinds of data sets that would make a marketing executive salivate.

[ghmm]

HGSI:

The replay is now available (IMO HGSI doesn't do a good job of providing links to their webcasts and I am not that interested to call in to listen live):
http://www.investorcalendar.com/IC/CEPage.asp?ID=142121

The stock is now .65 so market cap is below 100 million but as noted on this board they have a sizeable amount of debt. I wonder how the stock would have done if they didn't meet the non-inferiority?

Here is a link to the 10-k (2/26/09)
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/901219/000095013309000480/w72865e10vk.htm
If anyone considers them a BV I'ld be interested in hearing the bull cash and if they could reduce their debt at a significant discount.