Replies to post #74539 on SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)

[spdpro]

Fox, That post is my current worry.
The Herd is very Ill of this and
getting sicker by the week.
Yea, I was In and Out during
Black Monday and Dot Bomb Era
and got hammered real bad.
I can relate to this current activity.

[GLENO34]

Fox,,Great chart and analysis..Yes it is scary and yes I think we all are sick of this Bear Market even tho we trade it profitably, But it is not good for the country or the people.I sure wish I had a good idea as to what could be done..I just gripe and moan but have no solution..Guess we should have thought about this before we elected the people that are in office..Maybe God will come to our aid?

[Neutral Man]

FOX-E-One, Ok, Alright, being a TA, Chart, Fibs & Lies Zen-Master-n-all, I feel compelled to comment on this chart?

I think I've made it clear why I do NOT like TA, Chart, Fibs & Lies stuff but for those who do not know I offer this.

Da-Boyz have spent lots of coin over many years teaching dis-stuff to any and all that'd listen, hence, they formed a basis for actions based on price movement and they LIKE IT!!

In summary, they have a following of play-ar's that take dis, dat, or whatever action based on said indicators lining up, hence, ALL TA, Chart, Fibs & Lies play-ar's are like Puddy in da-Boyz hands, OUCH!

Can you imagine being able to manipulate prices (many can NOT, accept manipulation as possible dat is), up and/or down in a manner consistent with triggered buy/sell signals for ALL who follow TA, Chart, Fibs & LIes, how freakin sweeeeeet would dat be!

This is a recipe for losses if you're a FOOL who follows such teachings, BUT, we MUST give da-Boyz kudos in their fine efforts to CONTROL the masses, well done Boyz, take a bow, Very Entertaining, BUT, it's OVER NOW, LOL!!

Ok, as I digress, back to the Chart and some Zen-Full-Observational stuff!?

First, I think "inflection" points are all moot ones at this time as they suggest some kind of "special" point in time and I can assure you we've well exceeded "special" and are on a path of "insane" points as we go forward?

Secondly, using a graph from strictly a empirical view is likely to confound the situation so I offer a more simply perspective and its based on our experience with percentages vs. ALL other TOOLS!?

The drop from 14000 to 6500 is roughly -54% and represents an expected decrease based on previous falls from glory, hence, a bounce is imminent and to be expected RIGHT here and RIGHT NOW!?

Bounces off such a dramatic fall are likely to be between 30-40% ( 8450 to 9100), and last typically 4-8 wks, 06Apr/06May?

In addition, you'll likely see the first 20% bounce happen in FIVE Trading days (7800, 6500 x 1.20), and the remaining 20% up and time represent the distribution period (this is where all the ignor-a-mouses think the "ALL CLEAR" has been sounded), and da-Boyz distribute all the shares they accumulated supporting dis, dat or da-udder levels?

We can confirm these levels of expectations (8450/9100), by simply viewing the chart since Oct08 and now. We see that the majority of "SELLING" has taken place below 8970. This suggest that at the very least we spend some time at or near those levels?

We can also see that over the last 6 months that most of the "SELLING" by da-FOOLS , and accumulating by da-Boyz, took place between 8135 and 8970 and is NOT a place where da-Boyz are gonna want to spend much time?

Therefore, while we expect a Fast and Furious bounce to 7800 (6500 x 1.20), we expect an even FAST-r move THROUGH the 8135/8970 zone?

In summary, we expect prices to climb back to 7800 in 1 to 2 days, then a consolidation day between 7800 and 8135 before we Blast up to 8970 in the next TWO days? This is how da-Boyz work and we expect nothing less then "Play-Book" action to transpire the week of 09/13Mar?

Being a Quad-ripple-happen-ing MarOpEx aught not disappoint us in this regard, especially since muchos stuff happens in regard to positioning and rolling out on the Thursday of the week BEFORE OpEx (12Mar), WooHoo!?

Now, back to dat Monthly thingy, I suspect da-Boyz are gonna paint one of TWO pictures on dat puppy, a Head-n-Shoulders the END is near kinda picture, OR, a Massive Diamond formation?

The Head-n-Shoulders pictures is the best short term-r since we've likely posted a ST Bottom and will take 4 to 6 years to complete the right shoulder?

On the other hand, the Diamond pattern is less enjoyable ST but portends we actually have a future since it would likely be a continuation Diamond and we'd go on to post new highs some decade into da-future? BUT, in the meantime, we'd have to go to 4000 on the DOW to complete the bottom "v" of the Diamond and it would happen between Oct09/Mar10, OUCH!?

Thanks for posting dat puppy and regardless of the picture being painted I concur, May GOD have mercy on us ALL!!

[tjwny]

What would you call the rally in oct 07, a jump before a fantasic dive, a mother of all pumps & dumps!