I can't wait to show these to the fool hardy Clinton supporters that laughed at me during the war in Kosovo when I suggested that the war party's real interest in Kosovo was the oil in the Caspian Sea.
A greater Albania that includes parts of Greece? Tito promised the Abanians a greater Albania. It was Clinton that delivered on that promise with the war in Kosovo nad after wards using the KLA as the terrorist branch of NATO.
Europe did a lot of self serving talk after the Kosovo war sounding as if they were not going to let the Americans stay. It was not lost on the Serbs that the grandchildren of the Luftwaffa were part of the crew dropping bombs on the Serb sections of the FRY. Serbs, Macedonians and people from Montenegro I have talked to strongly favor Russian troops in the region. As far as I know all the languages in the region are Slavic.
CT, Is what I am reading correct? France, Germany and Russia frequently take the same side. However not in this case if Germany is still pressing for allowing Kosovo to vote on independence which would be opposed by Russia and not recognized by Serbia, or Macedonia and Greece.
The U.S. is pulling its peacekeepers out of the Balkans very quietly, NATO will end its military mission to Bosnia in 2005, France and Germany have committed to staying and Russia is taking a more active role. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov said after meeting Prvoslav Davinic, the defence minister of Serbia & Montenegro, on Saturday that Russia was ready to maintain and develop military and technical cooperation with Serbia & Montenegro. #msg-3430996
July 23, 2004: Without much publicity, the U.S. is pulling its peacekeepers out of the Balkans.
July 21, 2004: Bulgaria has taken a hard line against al Qaeda terrorists, keeping its troops in Iraq despite the murder of a Bulgarian worker by terrorists there. Bulgaria has long warned of the continuing danger of Islamic terrorists operating in Bosnia and Albania. American and European counter-terrorism experts believe about 300 of the thousand or so foreign Moslems in Bosnia are "suspicious", and thought to be part of al Qaeda related organizations. The al-Tawhid terror group, which openly proclaims itself to be "the European branch of al Qaeda", has long operated in Bosnia.
July 19, 2004: Macedonia has agreed to the establishment of an autonomous Albanian district, in order to obtain popular support from the Albanian minority, and reduce support for Albanian nationalists. The armed Albanians calling for "Greater Albania" are still out there. But much of the muscle for this call to gather all Albanian occupied into one large "Greater Albania" (stretching from southern Serbia to northern Greece and east to parts of Macedonia, as well as Albania and Kosovo) came from criminal gangs, which are now distracted with their criminal activities.
July 12, 2004: The March riots in Kosovo that left 19 dead, and hundreds of Serb homes and churches burned down, were largely the result of the 17,000 peacekeepers in Kosovo being unable to coordinate their response. Some 50,000 Albanians are estimated to have participated in 33 different attacks. In most cases, a mob formed, overwhelmed local police and peacekeepers, and ran wild. The peacekeepers tended to put priority on saving lives, not protecting property.
July 10, 2004: A patrol of Finnish troops in central Kosovo came under fire, and four Finnish troops were wounded. Six Albanians were arrested and the search continues for weapons. Albanian nationalists are determined to chase the remaining Serbs, and other non-Albanians, out of Kosovo (which is not over 90 percent Albania.)
July 8, 2004: Kosovo's Albanian dominated parliament threatens to pass a law authorizing a vote on independence. The UN has warned that this is illegal, as Kosovo is still technically a part of Serbia. Such a law would encourage militant Kosovo Albanians to use armed operations against peacekeepers.
July 3, 2004: The UN has finally put pressure on Bosnian Serbs to surrender major war criminals that have long hidden among the Serbian population. The UN is using it's economic clout, and power to remove Serbian government employees from their jobs to cause the surrender of bad guys like Radovan Karadzic. The Bosnian government has become stronger over the years, and neighboring Serbia has gradually withdrawn its military and diplomatic support, making it possible to apply sufficient pressure to get the people responsible for a lot of the mass murders of the 1990s, to surrender.
July 1, 2004: On May 7, 1999, American warplanes mistakenly bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. One of the four 2,000 pound smart bombs did not explode, and today it was finally defused and removed.
June 30, 2004: UN administrators in Bosnia fired sixty Serb government employees for helping to hide Serb war criminals. The UN action marks the end of independent Serb power in Bosnia. The UN has been picking away at that political and military power for years.
June 28, 2004: NATO will end it's military mission to Bosnia in 2005.
June 22, 2004: The 12,000 man NATO SFOR (Stabilization Force) in Bosnia will be replaced by a 7,000 man EUFOR (European Union Force) by the end of the year. U.S. forces will be withdrawn. EU forces took over the Macedonian peacekeeping force, of 400 troops, late last year.
June 17, 2004: The March riots in Kosovo have produced 200 criminal cases, but progress against the accused is slow, and most locals believe that little will come of it. In Albania, police have noticed the Colombian drug gangs moving in, apparently to set up a distribution network for their cocaine. The Albanian criminal gangs support Albanian nationalists, and use some of the money they make illegally to advance the cause of "Greater Albania"
June 16, 2004: There's a sharp dispute going on in the Bulgarian armed forces, as the government plans to drop "defending the country from its neighbors" from the list of things the troops should prepare for. Instead, the government wants the troops to concentrate on peacekeeping missions, and let NATO membership secure the national borders. Not all the generals agree with this new strategy.
June 12, 2004: Serbia is demanding that NATO attempts to bring peace in Kosovo be scrapped and the province be divided into Serbian and Albanian portions. The Serbs are still angry over the March riots by Albanians, that left 19 people dead, over 900 wounded. The two days of violence also resulted in 4 000 people, mostly Serbs, fleeing their homes, over 800 houses were burned down, as were 19 Serb Orthodox churches and monasteries. By establishing ethnic enclaves, many of the 120,000 Serbs who fled Kosovo after the UN peacekeepers entered in 1999, could return. There are only about 80,000 Serbs still in Kosovo, compared to nearly 1.7 million Albanians.
June 8, 2004: Albania has frozen $2.6 million in banks, charging that the money belonged to al Qaeda and was to be used for terrorist operations.
June 6, 2004: Yesterday's murder of a Serb 16 year old by Albanians was seen as yet another attempt to drive Serbs out of Kosovo. The Serbs recognize that the NATO peacekeepers cannot man all the checkpoints all the time, thus murderous Albanians, if they are patient and persistent enough, always get through. In Bosnia, peacekeepers continue to fine illegal weapons. Yesterday, an RPG-7 anti-tank rocket launcher, 11 anti-tank rockets, eight machine guns, and two grenades were found in an abandoned building.
June 5, 2004: In Kosovo, a Serb teenager was killed in a drive by shooting by Albanians, who were later arrested. This is the first fatal violence between Serbs and Albanians since March. Thousands of Serbs demonstrated to protest the killing, but there was no more violence.
June 4, 2004: In Bosnia, the Croatian-Moslem and Serb armed forces have reduced their strength from 19,200 to 12,000 (4,000 Serb, 8,000 Croatian-Moslem). Eventually, the Serbs will merge with the main national army and all units will be integrated. Bosnia wants to bring its tiny armed forces up to NATO standards so they can attempt to join NATO. Once a member, they would be protected from attack from neighboring Serbia and Croatia.
May 30, 2004: Peacekeeper strength in Bosnia continues to go down, with the total going down from 7,500 to 7,000 next month. In the beginning (1996), there were 60,000 peacekeepers. The Bosnian armed forces continue to shrink as well, being reduced from 13,000 to 8,000 this year. There is still a great deal of ethnic division in Bosnia, but the violence has not returned.
May 9, 2004: UN peacekeepers in Kosovo admit that their intelligence service in the area has not been able to detect growing unrest, and tolerance for violence, among the Albanian majority. Radical Albanians, backed by Albanian criminal gangs and nationalist organizations, back the ethnic cleansing of all non-Albanians from Kosovo. Serbia wants greater protection for the Serbian minority in Kosovo. Moreover, Kosovo is still technically part of Serbia, and the UN is supposed to eventually return control of the province to Serbia. But the Albanians in Kosovo want to be independent.
May 6, 2004: The US government has frozen the assets of three Bosnian based charities (Al Furqan, the Al- Haramain and Al Masjed Al-Aqsa Charitable Foundation, and Taibah International-Bosnia branch) and declared them supporters of al Qaeda. The terrorist organization has long used Islamic charities (soliciting money for poor Moslems) and diverted some, or all, of the contributions to support terrorist operations. During the Yugoslav civil war of the 1990s, Moslem countries sent money, weapons and volunteers to aid the Moslem Bosnians. Hundreds of these volunteers stayed behind, and dozens of these have been arrested for engaging in Islamic terrorism activities.
May 1, 2004: Three of the four Jordanian police officers involved in the April 17 shooting incident have been released. The fourth officer is still being held on suspicion of participating in the shooting.
April 25, 2004: The investigation into the April 17 shooting in a Kosovo prison that left two Americans and the attacker (Jordanian Sgt. Maj. Ahmed Mustafa Ibrahim) dead. Investigations have revealed that Ibrahim may have been a member, or supporter, of Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas. Ibrahim fired over 400 rounds from his M-16 rifle during the attack, and was killed mainly because his weapon jammed and the Americans were able to get a shot at him. Ibrahim's four subordinates cowered in a guard shack during the shooting, but may have been tossing Ibrahim additional magazines (each with 30 rounds of ammo). The UN is very concerned with this case, because Western police and prison guards are now wary of serving with armed personnel from Moslem countries. If this attitude becomes more intense and widespread, it will be more difficult to recruit personnel for peacekeeping missions.
April 21, 2004: SFOR in Bosnia reported that its troops found two arms caches in the Prnjavor area. The big haul included 10 SAM-7 ex-Soviet (Strela) man-portable antiaircraft missiles.
April 19, 2004: The UN lifted the immunity from the four Jordanian police officers involved in yesterdays shooting. This will allow the four to be questioned about what happened. Stories that the Jordanians and Americans had been arguing over Iraqi before the shooting have been universally denied. However, politics has caused Jordanian security personnel to do this sort of thing before. There have been several cases of Jordanian police on the Israeli border opening fire on Israelis, or Western tourists passing through.
April 18, 2004: A Jordanian police officer assigned to UNMIK in Kosovo opened fire on a group of international corrections officers (prison guards). The incident occurred at a prison/detention center in the town of Kosovo-Mitrovica. Apparently the Jordanian attacker was standing with a larger group of Jordanian policemen when he began shooting at the corrections officers. Two Americans were killed (both women), the Jordanian attacker was killed, and eleven other policemen, (two Turks, one Austrian, and eight more Americans) were wounded. The UN identified the Jordanian as Ahmed Mustafa Ibrahim Ali.
April 14, 2004: Romania has given Afghanistan enough light weapons to outfit a light infantry brigade. The shipment consists of 1,500 Kalashnikov-type automatic rifles and 200 RPK light machine guns.
April 12, 2004: UNMIK said it arrest an Albanian Kosovar who played a major role in last month’s deadly riots. The suspect, identified as Avdyl Mushkolaj, was accused of inciting riots in the town of Decani.
April 9, 2004: Last month’s riots and murders in Kosovo continue to have political and military impact throughout Europe.
On April 5 Germany issued a statement that it would keep its troop contingent (4,000 troops) in Kosovo “until the security problem is solved.” France made basically the same statement. The 3,500 French troops in KFOR will remain (and there is a possibility of further reinforcements). On April 6 Russia stepped in and said that it favors a plan being developed to “enforce” law and order. Russia, regarded by pan-Slavists as the traditional “protector” of South Slavs (including Serbs), said the “international military contingent” (in Kosovo) may require restructuring. The Russian statement advocated the banning of ethnic Albanian radical organizations (but did not name any organizations specifically). The European statements recognize a need to “stand firm” in Kosovo – there will be no European bailout from Kosovo. The statements follow an April 4 interview with Kosovar President Ibrahim Rugova where he said he wanted a sustained NATO security commitment in Kosovo. He told a British paper that the presence of UK forces was a big plus and British troops were well-respected in Kosovo. The UK’s KFOR contingent was withdrawn in 2003, but 1,000 troops were sent to Kosovo in March, following the riots. Rugova added that there need to be a “crack down” (his term) on ethnic Albanian extremists and he hoped the British forces would remain in Kosovo to help with that operation. Rugova mentioned the Albanian National Army (ANA, or AKSH) as a major threat to Kosovo’s stability. Rugova is obviously asking NATO for help in fighting a Kosovar Albanian “civil war.” Rugova and other Kosovar moderates who have long favored negotiations over violent conflict, have been bullied by radical Albanian gunmen (many, we suspect, tied to Albanian criminal gangs), has decided it’s time to clean out the thugs. He doesn’t have the troops, but NATO does. If this sounds a little bit like Iraq, and the CPA’s decision to get rid of al-Sadr’s Mahdi militia, well, there are similarities. Albania and Macedonia will have to cooperate with any extended NATO operation, and deny the ANA sanctuaries in those countries.
March 30, 2004: Serbia, in the aftermath of March’s Kosovo riots, is once again arguing for partition of Kosovo. Serbia issued a statement that said the riots and deaths showed the notion of “a multiethnic Kosovo” is “an illusion.” Serbia favors “cantonization” of Kosovo into Albanian and Serb sectors. The UN is continuing to investigate the riots but the evidence so far supports early reports that the anti-Serb violence was planned by Albanian extremists.
March 29, 2004: Bulgaria’s military issued a report that stated the Bulgarian military is ready to join NATO. Bulgaria argued that its forces are now capable of “fulfilling NATO duties” even with current equipment. The Bulgarians acknowledged that they must still modernize their forces to meet NATO equipment standards, but the military budget will remain at 2.6 percent of GDP for the next several years –an indication that Bulgaria will modernize equipment over time. A Bulgarian military spokesman also said the government is committed to maintaining funds for “missions abroad.” Bulgaria has said that it would provide troops for NATO peacekeeping operations.
March 26, 2004: Germany is pressing for allowing Kosovo to vote on independence (which would probably make Kosovo independent because over 90 percent of Kosovars are Albanian). This independence would not be recognized by Serbia, or Macedonia and Greece as well. An independent Kosovo would be run, or heavily influenced, by powerful Albanian gangs and Albanian nationalists. Russia opposes an independent Kosovo, because such a country would continue to persecute it's Serb minority. It looks like KFOR peacekeepers are going to be stuck in Kosovo for a long time (as in decades.)
March 23, 2004: On March 23 two policemen were killed in Kosovo. One was an UNMIK police officer and the other a Kosovar. They died in an "incident" in the village of Luzane. UNMIK is investigating.
UNMIK and other sources now say last week's Kosovo riots and assassinations left 28 killed and over 850 injured. 56 KFOR peacekeepers were among the injured. Over 100 UNMIK policemen were injured. 17 Serbian "religious buildings" (churches, religious administrative buildings, and buildings that were part of church complexes) were damaged.
NATO KFOR peacekeepers also announced that KFOR was "searching for evidence" to help determine who instigated the violence. So far, KFOR and UNMIK have arrested over 200 people.
March 22, 2004: Today was officially declared a "day of mourning" in Kosovo. March 22 also seems to be the day it began to dawn on Kosovar Albanians that the province-wide spate of riots and murder had done extensive international political damage to their cause. Most of the violence was Kosovar Albanian against Kosovar Serb. Kosovar President (and moderate leader) Ibrahim Rugova was immediately aware of the effects. Rugova was quoted as saying on March 20: "...attacks on civilians and foreign soldiers are completely unacceptable and contrary to Kosova's vital interests." He meant independent Kosovo's interests. That was made clear March 22 when Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica argued that the anti-Serb violence demonstrates that Kosov should be divided along "ethnic lines. "
NATO peacekeeper commanders in Kosovo accuse Albanian nationalist organizations of carrying out the recent attacks against Serbs. Raids have been carried out to arrest Albanian leaders. Serb media darkly warns of war if NATO allows Kosovo to become independent. As it has for the last century, Albanians and Serbs are willing to fight to the death to control Kosovo.
The Peoples Movement for Kosovo (PMK), an Albanian extremist and virulently anti-Serb political faction, has emerged as the "possible" organizing force in Kosovo's recent violence. However, NATO sources refuse to lay blame on the PMK. The official story remains a spontaneous riot across the country sparked by the killing of a Kosovar Serb and the deaths of three Kosovar Albanians who drowned while fleeing a group of Serbs. Several western sources do quote UN peacekeepers and police as saying the anti-Serb violence appeared to be "well planned and organized." That certainly aligns with the facts much better than a spontaneous national riot. NATO does report that 3500 Kosovar Serbs had to flee their homes in various Serb enclaves throughout the province. The violence makes it less likely that the question of Kosovo's final status --whether independent state or autonomous region in Serbia-Montenegro-- will be quickly resolved. With Milosevic out in Serbia, Serbia is no longer a pariah state. Many Kosovar Albanian leaders, who have relied on international sympathy to pressure Serbia, aren't aware the political calculus is changing. As usual, the man in the middle is Ibrahim Rugova, the moderate Kosovar Albanian leader. Rugova has never been strong enough to face down Albanian radicals. (Austin Bay)
March 21, 2004: The fighting in Kosovo has killed 28, and injured over 600 so far. Most of the casualties have been Serbs, as Albanian nationalists have acted on their calls for driving all non-Albanians from Kosovo. Over a hundred homes and 16 churches have also been destroyed. Only about five percent of the Kosovo population is Serb. It used to twenty percent, but since the 1999 NATO take over of the area, Albanians have driven most of the Serbs out. The only Serbs left are a pretty die hard bunch, and it will take more than threats and low level violence to get them out. The remaining Serbs are also aware that this is the fifth ethnic cleansing of Kosovo in the last century (Serbs run out before 1912, Albanians between 1919-1941, Serbs again in 1941-45, Albanians in 1999 and now the Serbs again). Serbia threatens to invade, because NATO troops have not been willing, or able, to protect Serbs in Kosovo.
March 20, 2004: Beware the Ides of March in Kosovo– and a terrible spiral of violence that is a major setback for EU and NATO peacekeeping and nation building efforts in the Balkans. Here’s the big reason small incidents are escalating into a what is a major NATO crisis: Kosovar Serb anger at “low-level ethnic cleansing” by Albanian Kosovar gangsters has been rising for months. The other reason: Kosovar Albanians have fresh memories of mistreatment by the Serbs.
Here’s the trail of events. On March 15 a gunman wounded an 18 year-old Kosovar Serb in a drive-by shooting outside the tow of Caglavica. On March 16, a contingent of Kosovar Serbs, angry at what they thought was slow police response, set up a road block outside Pristina. The Serbs asserted that the man who had wounded the Serb on March 16 was an Albanian. When UN police arrived at the roadblock, some Serbs started throwing stones. A UN cop was hurt in the incident. Kosovar Serbs then demanded better protection from the UN. The Kosovo government asked the public to remain calm and condemned the shooting. However, three Kosovar Albanian children were reported drowned on March 16 near the village of Cabra. A fourth boy said he was “pursued” by Kosovar Serbs. The three boys who drowned had tried to escape by crossing the Ibar River, which is swollen from spring floods. On March 17 a huge riot broke out in Mitrovica, site of a long string of “bridge confrontations.” Mitrovica is divided into Albanian and Serb sectors. Rioters from both sides met near the bridge. UN police also showed up. It was reported that a Serb fired an AK-47 and two Albanians responded with gunfire. When the shooting ended four people were dead. A subsequent report said that six people died after an “exchange of heavy gunfire” across the dividing line in Mitrovica.
News of the Mitrovica riot spread throughout Kosovo and Serbia. What NATO sources now call “ethnic cleansing of Serbs” began against Kosovar Serb communities throughout the province. A total of 31 people died March 17-18 (no breakdown on ethnicity). NATO troops evacuated Serbs from several threatened neighborhoods. On March 18 KFOR ordered its troops to respond with “proportional force” when they encountered resistance. The UN Security Council condemned the Kosovo violence. The most articulate political statement was provided by British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw (excerpt quoted by Radio Free Europe): "There are deep historic divisions, going back centuries, right across the Balkans, and many of these historic pressures are represented in the divided communities in Kosovo. Building nations is not an easy issue...what would have happened if we, in our backyard, had allowed that kind of ethnic cleansing, brutal genocidal slaughter to go on unchecked? There was in practice no alternative to us intervening in Kosovo. We were right to do it, and we're right to stay there.”
On March 18 at least 17 Serbian Orthodox churches in Kosovo were set on fire. In the town of Lipjan, Kosovar Albanians threw grenades at Kosovar Serbs. After a firebomb was thrown at a church in neighboring Bosnia, the Bosnian government ordered extra security around religious buildings, in order to stave off the possible spread of trouble from Kosovo to Bosnia. Serb and Montenegrin officials claimed the spreading Kosovo violence was premeditated. One Serb official said the attacks were planned by Albanians to drive the Serbs out of Kosovo. Serbs in Serbia reportedly burned two mosques as a “reprisal” for the church burnings. One of the mosques attacked was a mosque in Belgrade dating from the 17th century.
Major action continued on March 19. 300 French KFOR troops assaulted three buildings in an Albanian enclave in Mitrovica’s Serb quarter. The French troops said that snipers had been active in the buildings. Serbs protested in Belgrade against the UN’s failure to insure the safety of Kosovar Serbs. At the end of the day the death toll for March 17-19 remained at 31, but the number of injured had jumped to “over 500.” Another critical figure is the number of Kosovar Serbs driven from their homes. The only figure at the moment is “several hundred.”
A KFOR press release said that all Kosovar and NATO political leaders were calling for calm in Kosovo. Britain promised another 750 troops (150 arrived March 19). Germany promised to send an additional 600 troops (scheduled to arrive March 20). France said another 400 French troops would be dispatched (and 240 of them arrived March 19). Italy promised another 130 paratroopers. Denmark will send another 100. The US added 100 troops on March 18. On March 18 KFOR had around 18,000 troops in Kosovo. The reinforcements should bring the figure to over 20,000.
Well and good because on March 19 Serbia threatened military action in Kosovo if NATO forces did not do enough to protect the vulnerable Kosovar Serbs. Specifically, Serbia said it had “the right” to end its “hands-off” policy in Kosovo if the fighting in Kosovo continued. Besides the concerns expressed by Bosnia, Macedonia is worried about the spread of inter-ethnic violence.
Big switch taking place while Americans count WMDs and focus on bin Laden.
-Am
Decision in the Balkans
July 15, 2004
Risky Gambit for Empire's Fate
by Nebojsa Malic
It appears that the fate of the American Empire will not be decided in Iraq, however strange that may sound. Body counts, rising costs and intelligence revelations keep showing that Iraq is an obvious fiasco; it would be more than easy to campaign on that point and oust the Bush administration come November, but for one thing. Doing so would hurt not only Bush, but the cause of the Empire, and that is anathema to foreign policy heirs of Bill Clinton who support the Kerry-Edwards campaign.
Instead, the advocates of Empire who came into their own under Bill Clinton are seeking to restore its faded prestige by going back to the Balkans, the site of their perceived triumph. Once again, the southeastern corner of Europe will have a pivotal role in modern history. Democrats' success could revitalize the wavering Empire, just as failure could help it implode. Either way, though, things are about to get bad for the tortured and tired denizens of the Balkans.
Waking From Hibernation
Contrary to hopes and promises, Bush never repudiated Clinton's policies in the Balkans, for the same reasons the Democrats are now not challenging Bush's in Iraq. Instead, his administration chose to place the Clinton policies into hibernation, satisfied to maintain the status quo and continue the Clinton agenda by inertia. Obviously, it also used the precedents of Bosnia and Kosovo to launch a war of aggression against Iraq. As the Iraq adventure went sour, the Balkans project was dusted off earlier this year.
More and more, Empire's advocates hearken back to the days of "successful" interventions in Bosnia, Kosovo and Macedonia, which indeed seem downright cheerful when compared to the gritty reality of the bloodshed in Iraq. Interviewing Bill Clinton last week, CNN's Christiane Amanpour – who was made a star by "advocacy journalism" in Bosnia – waxed poetic about Bosnia and Kosovo as a contrast to Bush's implied mishandling of Iraq.
So though a President Kerry would continue to fight in Mesopotamia, if there is a President Kerry, his first show of force would likely be on the ground his policy advisors consider more familiar. Chris Deliso made this argument superbly back in June, and his analysis is a must-read.
Two Flashpoints
There are two major unresolved issues in the Balkans today, both consequences of Imperial intervention and when taken together, mutually exclusive. One is the ongoing existence of Bosnia under the peace agreement that forced it together yet kept it partitioned; for the past eight years, Imperial viceroys have sought to gradually abolish the partition. The other is Kosovo, a province occupied by NATO and the UN on behalf of ethnic Albanians who have ethnically cleansed it of nearly all others and demand to be granted independence.
Though officially neutral, the Empire supports both unitary Bosnia and independent Kosovo. Yet the principle of sacred borders that keeps Bosnia together is somehow not valid when it comes to Serbia, of which Kosovo is a province. Nor is the self-determination that is supposedly applied to Albanians of Kosovo a principle when it comes to Serbs or Croats of Bosnia. Much tortured reasoning has been developed to make the Imperial position seem rational, but it still defies comprehension. So the tactic has now shifted to considering each case separately, so as to avoid the unpleasantness of logic.
Kosovo: Push for Separation
The best example of this is the recent interview with Morton Abramowitz, a powerful though somewhat secretive U.S. diplomat and founder of the International Crisis Group (ICG), for the Serbian weekly NIN. First off, Abramowitz wishes for the return of Democrats to power, particularly former Balkans kingmaker Richard Holbrooke, and predicts a Kerry administration would "seek the resolution of the Balkans situation much more aggressively."
Long a supporter of Kosovo independence, arguing for it even in the midst of the March pogrom, Abramowitz claims it is inevitable – and unrelated to any sort of principle. Practicality is the name of the game, and the only practical solution is an Albanian Kosovo. He pitches it to the befuddled Serbians as the price of joining the EU Leviathan – something they ostensibly desire: "If it wants to be a part of the EU, Serbia must give up Kosovo."
Abramowitz's push for Kosovo independence is just one of many in the aftermath of the Albanian pogrom that left the UN occupation mission in tatters this March. Last month, the German government sponsored an "off the record" conference in Berlin dedicated to "rethinking the Balkans," where one of the guests was Hashim Taqi, leader of the terrorist KLA and now a major political player in Albanized Kosovo. And last week, at the meeting of EU foreign ministers, Austria and her former subjects presented a policy proposal giving Albanians more authority and promising Serbs vague autonomy. Last, but not least, a major German think tank just published a report claiming the number of Kosovo Serbs displaced by Albanian ethnic cleansing is much lower (65,000) than reported (250,000); according to the European Stability Initiative (ESI), this means that the eventual return of expelled Serbs to Kosovo could be much more feasible, but also completely irrelevant.
Bosnia: Force and Trickery
In his interview to NIN, Abramowitz dismissed theories that Bosnian Serbs could win independence as compensation for separating Kosovo from Serbia:
"…Bosnia is a result of the Dayton agreement which we have to honor, and this question will not be opened. That would mean our approval of ethnic cleansing and everything we fought against. Bosnia is a quasi-state, I agree. [But] the Serb republic is a horrible creation of Slobodan Milosevic and Radovan Karadzic…."
This position involves a logical paradox, wherein the Dayton agreement is at the same time held inviolable and abominable; the former, when it guarantees Bosnia's statehood, the latter when it qualifies it through the existence of the Serb Republic and the Muslim-Croat Federation. Abramowitz is neither the originator nor the sole practitioner of such twisted thinking. Bosnia's current viceroy, Paddy Ashdown, certainly qualifies as its champion, systematically destroying Dayton while claiming to be defending it. Less overt but still within the category is U.S. Ambassador Robert Beecroft, just retired from heading the OSCE mission in Sarajevo, who in his farewell address promoted the idea of a unitary, post-modern Bosnia.
It is hard to find a more duplicitous advocate of Bosnian unity than the late Alija Izetbegovic, Bosnian Muslim leader who had the world convinced of his commitment to multiculturalism and the citizen state even as he wrote Islamic revolutionary manifestos and worked on establishing an Islamic state. But there is one dissembler worthy of Izetbegovic's mantle still alive and championing his goal.
Former prime minister Haris Silajdzic recently deadpanned in a BBC interview that the Dayton agreement was a result of international intervention "on the wrong side." Even though he was in Dayton at the talks, pushing hard for a compromise that Izetbegovic was rejecting, Silajdzic seems to have convinced himself – and seeks to convince others – that in Dayton the U.S. did not really help the Muslims, but the Serbs! This goes contrary to all known facts, including Richard Holbrooke's own account, in which he makes crystal clear his dislike of Serbs and sympathies for Muslims. Then again, Silajdzic's greatest value to Izetbegovic's cause has always been that he could utter the most brazen lies with a straight face, baldly asserting the exact opposite of reality without blinking.
Target: Serbia
Boris Tadic's honeymoon in power did not even begin, before the first Imperial threats arrived. Elected by a slight majority with less than half the electorate bothering to vote, Zoran Djindjic's political successor was served with U.S. demands four days before his inauguration.
Though his election was praised as a chance to secure Serbia for the Empire, and though he pledged loyalty to "Euro-Atlantic integration" and submission to all of Empire's demands, it seems that Tadic will not be getting a break he expected from Washington and Brussels. Having obtained such great results in the past through extortion, violence and threats of violence, the Empire hardly sees a need to negotiate or even act polite now. After all, why would one be courteous to slaves, especially those who serve eagerly?
Though the Empire does its best to pretend otherwise, Serbia's services are rather necessary in resolving the issues of Bosnia and Kosovo in a convenient manner. As a guarantor of the Dayton Agreement, Serbia could oppose its debasement. Similarly, as the rightful owner of Kosovo, which it only ceded temporarily and under duress, it can legally oppose any attempt to separate the occupied province. Such actions cannot realistically compel the Empire to desist, but they would make it rather difficult for the Empire to explain its actions – something it needs to do, as its hegemony rests on perception of righteousness as much as on the might of its weaponry. Thus, it is imperative that Serbia is politically broken into accepting, seemingly of its own free will, both the wanton centralization of Bosnia and the arbitrary separation of Kosovo.
Washington and Brussels know this may not be an easy task, but they have options for forcing Serbia to do their bidding. Albanians living in the Presevo valley, who launched their own war three years ago, could be "reactivated"; they were recently visited by top Albanian-American lobbyist Joseph DioGuardi. The separatist regime of Montenegro's prime minister Milo Djukanovic is continuing to implement a "creeping secession" from the union with Serbia, well aware that putting the question to a referendum openly would result in a defeat. It could be that Djukanovic and the Kosovo Albanians have been emboldened by the prospect of a Democratic administration; after all, Richard Holbrooke has called for their independence as early as a year ago. And in the northern Serbian province of Vojvodina, minority Hungarians have claimed to be "endangered," prompting U.S. Congressman Tom Lantos (a Democrat and Albanian advocate) to protest "anti-Hungarian violence." Or was that the other way around?
Unity of Purpose
In a sense, whether Democrats and Republicans hold power has no major impact on the Empire itself. Republicans' preference for Iraq and Democrats' eye on the Balkans are merely choices of venue, rather than indications of some conflicting principles. It's all about power, nothing more. One might wonder why anyone should bother voting, when they might cancel the elections and nothing would really change.
Similarly, there is greater agreement between Brussels and Washington over the Balkans than over Iraq, and tales of anything more than friendly rivalry between the two halves of the Empire are surely grossly exaggerated. Their "differences" in the Balkans are best illustrated by the "debate" between two think-tank directors, ESI's Gerald Knaus and ICG's Nicholas Whyte, earlier this month on IWPR. Quibbling over details concerning the extent of Imperial oversight and coercion in both Bosnia and Kosovo, both Knaus and Whyte were in absolute agreement about its intent: remaking the Balkans into something acceptable to the Empire.
The Democrats' Gambit
It appears that the Kerry campaign aims to perpetuate the Empire by shifting its focus from the public disaster that is Iraq to a secret disaster that is the Balkans. The lynchpin of this plan is to secure the submission of Serbia, which would then enable the "resolution" of Bosnia and Kosovo to the benefit Empire's current favorites. Serbians might be a much weaker opponent than the Iraqi partisans. Then again, they might not. History is not predictive of the future, but there has been more than one occasion when Serbs were figured for dead and gone, only to bounce back and deal the Empire of the day an unpleasant surprise.
In any case, if the Democrats' gambit succeeds, the Empire will get a new lease on life and continue its policy of planetary interference. But if it fails, that will be an opportunity for millions of disgruntled Americans to realize that changing Caesars isn't the way to restore the Republic; getting rid of Caesars is. Maybe then, with all the masks off, Americans could take back their country, and the repressed people of the Balkans could take back theirs.
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