Replies to post #73401 on Biotech Values

[srsmgja]

<< Which brings us back to where this thread started. I think it's patently clear from the most recent numbers that Copaxone is indeed cleaning Tysabri's clock, painful as this may be for you to accept>>

Dew -

I guess this just demonstrates that individuals can look at the same numbers and come to different conclusions.

This thread started with the one assertion made by you and Genisi that the monthly price difference between Copaxone and Tysabri is 2 FOLD. I have stated that this price disparity was indeed true back 3-4 years ago when Tysabri was originally launched. But with 20%+ yearly price increases of Copaxone and little to no price increase for Tysabri over the last number of years, this price disparity has narrowed considerably. I estimate it to be 10-15% on Average. Now I will concede that diffferent distributors and middlemen can effectively change prices by 2-4%. So What? So the price difference is 14-18%. It is neither 25, 50 nor certainly the 100% as you both originally stated.


From your post #73304 Copaxone Sales

Annualized 4Q 08 Sales

US 1.54 B (65% of total) +42% YoY + 9% QoQ

Total 2.38 B +37% YoY + 6% QoQ



According to Teva's conference call their UNIT SALES increased 10.5% for the entire year

Copaxone Price increases 25% in 3/08
10% in 8/08



Tysabri

In- market sales up 137% for the year to 813M

Number of patients on Tysabri as of 12/07 approx. 20,000 or 4% market share

Number of patients on Tysabri as of 12/08 approx. 37,500 or 7.5% market share

Increase in number of patients on Tysabri 4QoQ approx. 6%



My concluions from the above data -

Tysabri GROWTH has slowed during the last 2 quarters because of the confirmed incidence of PML. Its future growth will be significantly determined by its continued EVOLVING safety profile.

Copaxone growth has been very good, fueled MOSTLY by price increases, not unit growth. Still, its unit growth has been very good considering its a mature product. Said unit growth has come from newly diagnosed patients and at the expense of the interferons, not from Tysabri market share.

Regards

[genisi]

Annual cost of MS drugs end of 2008 (Tysabri is still priced at a premium):

 Avonex    $27.3k  
 Rebif     $28.5k 
 Betaseron $25k 
 Copaxone  $25.2k 
 Tysabri   $30.7k

Source: RedBook, Price RX, and companies.