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Replies to #73351 on Biotech Values
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oldberkeley

02/18/09 6:16 PM

#73357 RE: DewDiligence #73351

Dew- Re: IDIX

I'm following along with you when you say that IYO it's not shorting that's moving the PPS; I'm not sure what you're saying in the second part of the message. A low float can certainly make a stock more volatile, but not necessarily downward. Can you elaborate?

FWIW: I also added today at $4.80.

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dewophile

02/18/09 8:10 PM

#73368 RE: DewDiligence #73351

idix
"Based on the CC guidance about cash usage in 2009, I don’t think shorting based on the expectation of a financing deal explains the recent share-price dynamics"

they have a year's worth of cash. what sources of non-dilutive funding does the company have? 3 possibilities that come to mind are:
1. licensing of 184 - but could this be a 2009 event? how long does NVS have to exercise licensing after proof of concept? and does the 3 day monotherapy constitute proof of concept or will they have to wait for the 2 week combo with SOC?
2. milestones from GSK - idix evaded all questions re timing of milestones which leads me to think not much near-term (maybe modest clinical milestone at start ph 2 this year?)
3. selling tyzeka royalty stream - but at 900k/quarter with little growth expected not quite sure what they could get for it

am i missing something? what gives you such confidence a financing (even at depressed stock price) won't happen this year