IDIX – I don't think anyone can accurately call the bottom. My feeling is that some hedgies are trying to kill the price now betting IDIX would do a PIPE or secondary by the end of the year.
I agree with your first sentence but not with your second. Based on the CC guidance about cash usage in 2009, I don’t think shorting based on the expectation of a financing deal explains the recent share-price dynamics. However, NVS’ majority stake causes IDIX to have a low float, which makes the stock more volatile than the stocks of most biotech companies with a similar market cap.
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated in any area of human knowledge!”