Replies to post #73265 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: IDIX / GSK’s plans for IDX899

I can think of a reason [IDX899] may increase Epzicom sales.

No doubt IDX899 could reinvigorate Epzicom sales to some degree; however, I can’t see an all-in-one pill consisting of Epzicom + IDX899 being a serious competitor to Atripla or Quadro. If GSK wants to reestablish a leadership position in HIV, a cocktail based on Epzicom is surely not the answer.

Thus, I see two possibilities regarding GSK’s rationale for licensing IDX899:

1. GSK’s has conceded the top spot in HIV to GILD and merely wants to arrest the precipitous decline in Epzicom sales for a few more years; or

2. GSK wants to combine IDX899 with newer and better HIV drugs in GSK’s pipeline that have heretofore received no attention from the investment community.

Inasmuch as #1 makes little economic sense to me, I lean toward #2.