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arjunah

01/23/09 1:37 AM

#36861 RE: SilentOne #36848

SilentOne, given the secular bear market, we can no longer speak in terms a singular major low or 9 month low for the major indexes, and it is even difficult to do so for the sectors.

Look at the major sectors of the SPX. Financials may not even have put in a 9M low yet, Metals and Tech may have done so in November, Pharmaceuticals and Utilities in October, etc.

In a secular bull market its different. Most of the sectors and even most of the stocks in the sectors are cycling together and making highs and lows at pretty close to the same time. You can effectively trade the SPX then with Hurst's method, as Airedale demonstrated so well for so long. Not so in the secular bear. I haven't touched the SPX for 10 months.

I have been trading the XLF, UYG and SKF, but even then I'm using the bellweathers, like Wells Fargo, for timing the entry and exits. (I trade the stocks as well, but with the the "ultra" ETFs in a margined account you can get 4x leverage or more, so I go there if I have a high degree of confidence in the trade.)

Sorry for not answering your question directly. I'll give some more thought to it and try to respond further later on.

By the way, I like your charts. They having me tracking Oil pretty closely now.