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SilentOne

01/24/09 10:28 PM

#36873 RE: arjunah #36861

hi arjunah,

A 9 month low should be visible. An 18 month low even more so. Cycles will lengthen due to the larger cycles forces at play. Both 9 and 18 month lows will produce bear rallies, the 18 month more pronounced. The difficulty is figuring out where the 4.5 year low cam in. That one still stumps me to this day. You must have a current phasing in mind. My guess, and it can only be confirmed after the fact now is that the 4.5 year low came in early 2007. We are looking at an 18 month low here and it will produce the best bear rally of this bear market.

Don't think I am pounding table bullish here. Just looking to play this market for what may be the best long all year (2009).



cheers,

john
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kiko34

01/25/09 1:55 PM

#36875 RE: arjunah #36861

arjunah wrote, "Financials may not even have put in a 9M low yet"
How low do you think UYG go?