Replies to post #71863 on Biotech Values

[poorgradstudent]

Ablynx:

>To date, this hasn’t been seen with ALX-0081/0681, although these programs are still very early.<

I'm tempted to speculate that it isn't immunogenicity. I think you can design around it, especially in relatively easy-to-handle proteins like these nanobodies.

My bigger concern is that the relatively rapid clearance (as compared to full length mAbs) may limit the therapeutic window substantially. As I've suggested, the acute settings like anti-coagulation may be the most advantageous area to test these nanobodies because short exposure and rapid clearance is an advantage.

Other indications, not so much.

>My overall assessment of Ablynx is that is has some buyout vig, but not much else to make it attractive for investing.<

I agree. The cumbersome nature of the purchase (at least through Fidelity), the relatively thin trading and large spreads make it additionally difficult.

Still an interesting company to follow.

[mcbio]

Re: Ablynx/competition

I think Micromet (MITI) is one to keep an eye on in the antibody space. However, I'd like to see them sign a nice partnership and get a nice chunk of cash upfront as their finances are not exactly in order. They expected to sign two partnerships in 2009 and did just ink Bayer (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Micromet-Enters-Into-prnews-14027982.html ) to a deal worth about $6 million with possibly more downstream.

There have been a lot of articles on Seeking Alpha, for better or worse (lol), during the past year about the company. See, e.g., http://seekingalpha.com/article/63379-micromet-biting-cancer and http://seekingalpha.com/article/63887-micromet-biting-cancer-part-ii.

[mcbio]

Re: ABLX

My overall assessment of Ablynx is that is has some buyout vig, but not much else to make it attractive for investing. The main problem is competition: there are manifold companies developing small antibody-like drugs, and hence there’s a high probability that one or more of these techniques will prove to be better than nanobodies. Investing in Ablynx is (IMO) tantamount to a bet that some Big Pharma buys them out before it becomes common knowledge that another company’s platform is superior. This is not necessarily a bad bet, but it’s not a bet I’m inclined to make.

Is your investment thesis for ABLX still pretty much the same today? If nothing else, it sounds like an interesting technology and approach. Also, who do you see as ABLX's biggest competitors in the small antibody-like drug space? Finally, do you have a ballpark estimate on ABLX's market-cap off-hand? Y! doesn't have that basic information since the stock trades on a foreign exchange. Edit: I found their Web site and it looks like a ballpark of about $400 million if I read the number correctly and converted accurately from EURs to dollars.