Replies to post #71085 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Pirfenidone survey

I voted for a mixed outcome, but not because I have any insight into the Pirfenidone program. Rather, the mixed answer choice simply has more ways to be right than the other answers do.

As defined in the survey, the mixed outcome can arise if the underlying truth is that the drug has good efficacy, fair efficacy, or even no efficacy at all. Neither of the other answer choices can realistically arise for such a diverse set of underlying truths.

[DewDiligence]

ghmm et al re ITMN: Your long wait on pirfenidone is over.
CC tomorrow at 8am ET:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/InterMune-to-Announce-Results-prnews-14228391.html

[DewDiligence]

Results of the Pirfenidone Survey

There were 12 votes (one of the smallest vote totals for a survey on this board).

Q: What will be the outcome of the two phase-3 trials?

a) POSITIVE (both trials p<.05 on FVC with PFS showing at least a positive trend):
42%

b) NEGATIVE (nothing good from either trial):
8%

c) MIXED (only one trial positive or some other set of mixed outcomes):
50%

Thanks to all of the participants for participating.