There's a very strong tendency when taking AIM during a Bull Market to shoot oneself in the Foot. We have a lovely award called a Strewie (currently in the possession of a certain Bernie G.)....... ( http://www.aim-users.com/diction.htm#q15 ) ........that nicely demonstrates how well this can work.
First given out to Grabber in 2000, it then transferred to Bernie in 2001. I think we should contact him and have yet another Strewie Award contest to see who's the 2008 Winner!
Bernie was a book thumping Lichello disciple and rarely strayed from the scripture. He was 1st in line to critique anyone who strayed from Mr. Lichello's own dictum. Maybe that's why we were all so happy to have him win the Strewie. I'll see if I can find an archive photo of the award.
The markets do tend to condition our thinking. It is very hard to remain truly independent when we're surrounded by the 'noise' and trying to find the 'signal.' This is true both at the bull's end and the bear's. I think this is also some of what Mr. Taleb is saying.
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