Replies to post #41881 on Options Wonderland

[3xBuBu]

DEUTSCHE BANK CUTS ESTIMATES, TARGET FOR JP MORGAN
Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo says that worsening economic trends should put additional pressure on JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (JPM) loan portfolios (especially cards, home equity, residential, and commercial mortgage) as well as banking industry in general.

Mayo expects commercial bank loan losses to rise from 1.5% to 3% by the end of 2010, on increased percentage of loans with higher losses, greater consumer leverage and sooner problem recognition by banks.

He cuts 2009 EPS estimate by $0.65 to $2.05, and 2010 by $0.35 to $2.20, reflecting higher loss rates and lower revenue. As a result, he cuts $37 target to $34. He rates JPM hold.

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2009/pi2009015_500851.htm?chan=investing_investing+index+page_stocks+%2Bamp%3B+markets

[Market Technician]

re: SPY
I bought some of these as a lotto play.

SPY Mar 2009 50.00 Put(OPR: SWVOX.X)
Last Trade: 0.12
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SWVOX.X

[Fox13]

GLD:
-a swing trade (chart 1). Any opinion? One could stay only in puts if a down trend is confirmed…

-an attempt to time it (chart2). Hurst cycles (purple) and Fibonacci time extensions of a recent UP trend (yellow), which produced a nest of lows. Interestingly, the dominant Hurst cycle appears here to be 300 days and not exactly 1 year - as the popular wisdom wants it to be: Chinese New Year, wedding cycles…