Replies to post #69422 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

An approximately 40% lower death rate means the HR is ~0.60 based on the events observed to date.

I knew of the "death rate appox 40% lower..." in the PR and I completely agree that your interpretation is *probably* correct. I am poking at the fact that I have to caveat it with *probably* since they used the word 'approximately' and they did not talk of "HR". I have been tricked before when companies were, for instance, refering to a landmark analysis when talking of death rate reductions.

i.e. I was making a minor point - and a note to myself that I need to check it when the data comes out in its entirety.


PS My WAG is that if you calculated p value out of 20 months on their current results that the p value would be very low indeed (p~0.001 or less). And if the remaining patients continue the same curve the p value out of 20 months or so will be spectacular. I.e. my guess is the stuff works, albeit possibly with some PSB discount necessary.

[mcbio]

Dew, iwfal, or others:

I didn't realize when I first posted about this that Oncogenex is publicly traded (OGXI). I think a really interesting question, given OGXI's tiny market cap of $25 million and the trial results, is whether or not OGXI warrants further scrutiny as a possible investment.

They are going to need to raise cash via partnership to further develop OGX-011 but, given how good these results appear, I would think that's quite possible/probable. There's always the possibility of a buyout from someone as well.

Any thoughts?

Thanks.