Replies to post #69294 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA – Further to the discussion of a potential Lovenox AG launch by Sanofi, I’ve run some BotE calculations on the degree to which MNTA’s slice of the Lovenox pie would be reduced by: i) an AG launch with no FDA-approved generic other than MNTA/Sandoz; or ii) one or more other FDA-approved generics.

Let P be the present value of MNTA’s economic interest stemming from the generic-Lovenox program in the event that MNTA/Sandoz obtain the sole FDA-approved generic and Sanofi does not launch an AG.

In the case where there is no FDA-approved generic other than the one from MNTA/Sandoz but SNY launches an AG, I estimate that the present value of MNTA’s slice of the Lovenox pie is 0.6P, a 40% reduction from the best-case scenario.

In the case where there are multiple FDA-approved generics, I estimate that the present value of MNTA’s slice of the Lovenox pie is 0.15P, an 85% reduction from the best-case scenario.

Intermediate calculations leading to the above estimates are available upon request.

[rkrw]

My opinion would depend on how much the royalty is taken down. If its a fat reduction, then the deal is weak (imo). If minor, then maybe its fair.

We don't know what the difference is.

mnta had solid vc backing, they weren't forced to do the deal. But doing the deal did help them get public for the vc's no doubt.