Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA – Further to the discussion of a potential Lovenox AG launch by Sanofi, I’ve run some BotE calculations on the degree to which MNTA’s slice of the Lovenox pie would be reduced by: i) an AG launch with no FDA-approved generic other than MNTA/Sandoz; or ii) one or more other FDA-approved generics.

Let P be the present value of MNTA’s economic interest stemming from the generic-Lovenox program in the event that MNTA/Sandoz obtain the sole FDA-approved generic and Sanofi does not launch an AG.

In the case where there is no FDA-approved generic other than the one from MNTA/Sandoz but SNY launches an AG, I estimate that the present value of MNTA’s slice of the Lovenox pie is 0.6P, a 40% reduction from the best-case scenario.

In the case where there are multiple FDA-approved generics, I estimate that the present value of MNTA’s slice of the Lovenox pie is 0.15P, an 85% reduction from the best-case scenario.

Intermediate calculations leading to the above estimates are available upon request.