Replies to post #15204 on GTC Biotherapeutics (fka GTCB)

[DragonBits]

BP, what makes you believe the value of GTC is unrecognized?

Abbott and Bristol-Myers Squibb have created founder animals, Genzyme is probably the most familiar with GTC, since these companies have worked with GTC they should be able to recognize the value of the company and buy it out or invest in it if they so desired. The fact that they haven't so far is one of the biggest negatives.

I have no idea how the market will react to FDA Atryn approval, and I am not sure that the FDA will approve Atryn without more data. EMEA was as close a call for approval we any company can have.

I am not sure if it has been discussed, does anyone know the sales of Atryn? The more it had been used in Europe with sucesss the easier it should be for the FDA to grant approval.

During the great depression many farmers were underfunded and overleveraged, they had to sell valuable farm land that 90 years later was worth 1000s of times more than what they were forced to sell at. So balance sheets and timing make a huge difference in ROI.

I was convinced 4 years ago that Transgenics worked as advertised, but I could also see that the biotech market place was never a believer in GTC's business plan. And I thought that GTC overstated the value of being able to produce already approved drugs via Transgenics.

I was trying to determine the future for GTC over the next year, so I thought it might be worthwhile discussing how much money GTC is expected to have in Oct 2009.

[vinmantoo]

Biopearl,

If you look on the Yahoo board for posts by bits, you will see his comments that the GTCB platform, isn't now, nor ever was viable. This was the thread where he called GTCB smoke and mirrors. Here is something from one of his posts.


<The weight of evidence is that no one within the drug industry ever believed in the GTC intial businees model. The evidence is overwhelming.
Genzyme got rid of the company because in their opinion the business model wouldn't work. Genzyme could have easily supported GTC if they thought there was a real gold mine there. Big phrama is hungry for pipeline and for profits. Big phrama takes a lot of risks and are always teaming up with promising small biotechs. They seldom spin them off unless they think that is a failed approach.
Insiders didn't buy in those years because also knew the business model wouldn't work.>



Here is more form bits where he tries to dismiss GTCB. Notice he doesn't include the Pharmathene and Pharming deals. I guess they are too dumb to realize that the GTCB transgenics platform isn't a viable option.


<GTC business model was that they could reduce the cost of production of existing drugs. What happened to the programs with Abbott, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Centocor, Elan, Alexion, ImmunoGen, Merrimack and Progenics? Is production really cheaper after considering all costs? Why haven’t any of these programs succeeded? Surely some like Abbott, Bristol-Myers Squibb have the money to move ahead, they have the money to have bought out GTC, but instead what has happened? Why is that?

GTC said,, “Plasma derived antithrombin is currently marketed in Europe, Japan and the United States with annual worldwide sales of $250M. Overall sales of this product have been limited in various markets and is highly dependent on the available supply.”

Why are sales of rATIII so poor now that the supply issue has been solved?

That is the 80% part of the smoke.>