What you say is true and certainly in accord with the numbers, but not I think in line with the dynamics of this market.
When retail tanks in 4Q and 1Q (and likely other quarters)
the market is similarly going to tank on multiple bad earnings reports and grim
projections. Intel is going to be swept down with that general market collapse
regardless of rationale.
After that reset stocks with good fundamentals that still show strength will bounce back earlier and more strongly.
But my opinion (and it is no more than that) is that if you are looking for the
Intel bottom you won't get there until 2Q09 and it will be significantly lower
than the levels we are at now. In terms of money and mouth I've completely liquidated by Intel position and will not buy back in until I see how the market reacts to retail earnings in the next two quarters. I'm currently in GE and Wells Fargo and cash. I think that the recovery will likely be led by financials regardless of rationality so I'm closely watching Morgan and Citi. Analysts have concluded that Citi can not make a profit in 09. I think they can in 2Q09. If they do they could double by 09 year end.
But, as I said in an earlier post...this market isn't going strongly upward anytime soon and there is time to watch and wait. I can't see taking an Intel position before the retail majors announce 4Q.
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