Under most sets of reasonable assumptions, hitting the required HR threshold at the final analysis is no cakewalk.
It all hinges on whether you believe that it is coincidence or truth that HR improved very substantially over time with 9901 and 9902a. In both it improved more than 50% after placebo median.
The question is what was the chance of that happening by good fortune. Until I have answered that question I personally will not invest even if I am hopeful for moral reasons.
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