News Focus
News Focus
Replies to #67212 on Biotech Values
icon url

DewDiligence

10/09/08 12:14 AM

#67213 RE: iwfal #67212

>DNDN – It all hinges on whether you believe that it is coincidence or truth that HR improved very substantially over time with 9901 and 9902a… The question is what was the chance of that happening by good fortune. Until I have answered that question, I personally will not invest even if I am hopeful for moral reasons.<

Are you thinking about how you might answer it, or is your question meant to be taken as philosophical and rhetorical?
icon url

DewDiligence

10/10/08 12:35 AM

#67256 RE: iwfal #67212

DNDN – The most astonishing thing about the entire Provenge saga is that, after all these years, the program’s very existence is teetering on the precipice.

Imagine how different things would be now if 9902b had been massively overpowered by taking into account program-survival bias. A Big Pharma partner would undoubtedly have done exactly that by designing 9902b to be at least 1.5x bigger and perhaps as much as 2x bigger than the size DNDN settled on.

Instead, short-sellers have made a lot of money on DNDN over the past several years. It was an easy bet for them to make given the sorry track record of small-biotech CEO’s who think they know it all and don’t need the help of an experienced partner.