Replies to post #169810 on SwingTrade Member Forum (SWING)

[Modern_Rock]

first there was the .com boom, then tank, then the real estate boom, then tank, so now we need to find the next big thing to bring us out of this slump. Until then, I think we may go sideways for awhile. Ups and downs and swings but more of less sideways... what do i know, i only hold a stock for an average of 2 minutes haha. So my bull market lasts for 10 mins

[MSGI]

Actually I have made a mistake. The 1929 crash didn't last 11 years it lasted about 3 years and dropped 86%. We are only down 25-30 percent now, so if this turns out to be a 1929 type of crash, the Dow would drop all the way down to about 2,000. The recovery didn't take 11 years like I originally stated, it took 22 years to recover that 86%. Here is a good short write up about the 1929 crash.

1929Stock Market Crash:
This is the grand daddy of them all. Investors lost 86% of their money over this 813 day beast. This market crash combined with the 1929 crash, makes up the great depression.

If you had $1000 on 9/3/1929 (beginning of the 4th worst crash, it would have gone down to a whopping $108.14 by July 8th, 1932 (end of the worst crash) or an 89.2% loss. To recover from a loss like that, you would have to watch your portfolio go up 825%! The full recovery didn't take place until 1954, 22 years later!

[Rawnoc]

There were mini bull markets that lasted years inbetween there. !929 was way different though.

You have two things that don't correspond -- (
(1) If we get 25% unemployment and bread lines I think the stock market will be the least of most of our worries.

(2) A ragingbull bull market with absolutely ridiculous valuations and no margin requirements in the stock market. Kind of like NASDAQ 5000. Probably take more than 11 years to beat that mark. :) But Dow 14,400? The PEs were never out of control like NASDAQ 5000 or Dow 1929. But true, if there's massive slaughter to the economy 1929 style, then it may be 11 years before the Dow reaches a bottom.

[Rawnoc]

"When it peaked a few weeks before the crash, The Dow Jones had risen 597% over the previous 8 years. It was soon to become a symbol of runaway pessimism."

No wonder it took 11 years to pass it again. Like housing prices in 2006, the Dow had no business being that high in the first place.

By the way.....the Dow hit its low in 1932 so even the Greatest Great Bear of all Greats only lasted less than 3 years so I think the notion that this one is going to last 5 years given all of the arguments in these two posts I made is almost impossible IMO without some major outside cause such as a major terrorist attack.