Replies to post #169812 on SwingTrade Member Forum (SWING)

[flota]

right but during that time dow jones ran from the low of 41 in 1932 to hitting a high of 194 in 1937, so there will be short term opportunities as in bear market reversals are vicious. Also in just 1932 it ran from 41 to 79 before crashing back to 50.

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When one bank is left
cramer shuts down his show
abby cohen buys a treasury bill
All 401K retirement funds move to treasury funds :)

[ChrisJP]

Hi MSGI,

The great depression bear market lasted 27 months. We're already in month 12 of ours. So at worst we're about halfway through.

The governments actually constricted credit in the early 1930s. So that's why the markets ground down to 1/10 of the 1929 peak. Not to mention no FDIC, so people pulled their money out of their banks.

We're gonna have a different experience. Our government will borrow and lend to prevent a repeat of the great depression. The dollar will devalue and our consumption obsessed standard of living will drop and our economy will resemble a latin american country's economy for a while. Gold will probably be a good thing to own.

But other than that, we'll be fine, lol.

Chris

[Rawnoc]

But the Dow was up 600% the 8 years before its peak in Oct 1929.

The Dow was up around 35% before its peak in Oct 2007.

So if you were to compare them both in terms of percent move, then you have to compare it all. Dow 1929 at the beginning of its recession had the equivalent of a Dow 74,200. It then fell 89% I read at its very low which would be the equivalent of a Dow 8,162 today.

Put another way, the Dow found a bottom 23% below where it started 8 years before the bear market started in 1929. If the Dow follows the 1929 pattern, it will bottom at 8,162 or 23% below where it was 8 years ago.