Replies to post #12701 on Profunds index and sector trading (PRO)

[nuclearpayload]

FWIW, the daily indicators I use have rolled over in the overbought range, as if to call the top. And the 60min charts are showing bearish divergence on the new highs this week. This next decline will be critical, IMHO. The rest of the summer roadmap will depend on how low this goes, although the failure to make a new high thus far has me looking for a lower low. Big surprise to hear that from me, eh<g>.

I wouldn't be surprised to see one "last gasp" that gets the NDX to 1479, but I wouldn't count on it. I don't really care one way or the other now, as I have carved out a short empire in the 1460's.

[Z-M-L]

Last week on Friday the NDX “closed” at 1466.22. I was looking for the NDX to NEGATE one of the two possible (one Bullish and one Bearish) wave counts this past week. In order to NEGATE the Bullish wave count the NDX would need to “close” below 1427. In order to NEGATE the Bearish wave count the NDX would need to “close” above 1500. Neither of these two events occurred this past week. The NDX hit an inter-week HIGH of 1474.10; which is roughly five (5) NDX points from the 1479 level that had been derived from two FIB relationships. The NDX “closed” at its Friday inter-day LOW of 1455.04, down for the week.

So here we sit. I cannot yet rule out an attempt by the NDX to hit 1479 next week. However, if the NDX moves BELOW 1445.21 next week; the chance of hitting 1479, let alone 1500, becomes a smaller probability. A “close” BELOW 1427 in the NDX would make that probability zero and NEGATE the possible Bullish wave count.

I am keeping my STOP LOSS at 1500 on the NDX.

Currently, I have a position in the Rydex Venture (RYVNX) Fund, established on 04/12/04 at $24.92, within the Aggressive Portion of the portfolio; while the Conservative Portion of the portfolio has been in Cash or Cash equivalents since 01/02/04.