Replies to post #12802 on Profunds index and sector trading (PRO)

[was Steve]

yes last week was a total non event technically. next week will bring some clarity to the situation of that i feel quite confident

[michael03332002]

AI, while the "bands" on the wave violation seem to remain a bit constant, it seems the "time frame" is constricting, thereby setting up a helluva a move 1 way or the other.

The longer we wash around inside these bands, and even though the resistance/supports area may change only a few points, it becomes, in my mind, more volatile every day that we wander around. EACH side gets more and more nervous about their stance and the ole fingers get VERY twitchy at the first hint of being wrong, so in my mind this is a ticking time bomb and more than likely it will be the overnite or early FUTES that will decide the direction.

In thinking like a criminal, what better way to create PANIC than to not be able to trade in an orderly open market situation so if the direction is to be set, you will need to trap as many as you can in a panic mode and doing that under the extreme limitations of a non liquid market will enduce MAXIMUM fear and panic....

M

[Z-M-L]

First of all, I am raising my STOP LOSS in the NDX from 1500 to 1520 for the next few trading days. Twenty (20) points in the NDX is not going to change my world, but I want to avoid getting whipped-sawed by what appears to be the end of a corrective pattern.

The NDX today exceeded the 1479/1480 level that was derived by two FIB relationships. The NDX “closed” right at its Top Tick for they day at 1491.45. The corrective wave count of Wave (ii) of 3 of C is STILL valid even if the NDX “hits” 1500 or even a move to “but NOT above” 1508. Wave 2 of Any Degree is the only position that can retrace up to 100% of its previous DECLINE and STILL be a correction. There is even an outside chance that 1518.51 might be reached which is the (.786) retracement of the DECLINE from January 20th to March 24th. That would change the Wave Count and means that the ENTIRE correction in the NDX since March 24th is a LARGE A-B-C FLAT Wave 2. So for these reasons, I am raising my STOP LOSS for a few days until the picture clears up.

There is other evidence that indicates that we are in the midst of a GLOBAL corrective process that is now (13+1) FIB trading days long; and near completion. Some examples are:

1) The STOXX 50 will complete its (.618) A-B-C Correction when it hits 2728.35; today it had an inter-day HIGH of 2721.55.
2) The FTSE will complete its (.618) A-B-C Correction when it hits 4510.45; today it had an inter-day HIGH of 4496.30.
3) The Nikkei 225 will complete its (.618) A-B-C Correction when it hits 11,547.92; today it had an inter-day HIGH of 11,485.63.
4) The SOX completed its (.618) correction; but could STILL extend to its (.786) which is at 500.35.

So the markets around the WORLD are telling us that this “Corrective Process” will likely be completed during tomorrow’s trading after Opening Higher. However in the NDX, it could STILL reach 1500, 1508, or even 1519; so I will increase my STOP LOSS point as this plays out.

I am raising my STOP LOSS from 1500 to 1520 on the NDX for next few trading days; in order to avoid getting whipped-sawed.

Currently, I have a position in the Rydex Venture (RYVNX) Fund, established on 04/12/04 at $24.92, within the Aggressive Portion of the portfolio; while the Conservative Portion of the portfolio has been in Cash or Cash equivalents since 01/02/04.