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read_this_n0w

08/08/08 12:21 PM

#13522 RE: DewDiligence #13519

Well dew, if they did do financing, they should combine it with R/S same day or something and than combine it with strong PR items on Atryn data and timeline.

Thus the company would eliminate futher investor uncertainty later this year should market conditions stay tricky and thus possibility for share price to linge.

Buyout would piss me off, since low price now would all be due to management choices in the past, mainly to be development partner and burn cash for future prospects, opposed to being more production minded in return for short term cash.

All past management choices have been towards the former.
A buyout now would make them libel for mismanagement i would say.


They could allways try to amend the LFB limit of 19.9% and they could place any amount they would, but that too would hurt current holders, would give a trca scenario... ie buyout later on on relative good premium.. on a beaten down price.

PS you know i do not dismiss any fob items, not for gtcb either, although phase I is stronger show of potency for those.
But lets not redo that debate here


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croumagnon

08/08/08 1:01 PM

#13526 RE: DewDiligence #13519

"I see three possibilities: i) FoB deal with a relatively large up-front payment; ii) financing; or iii) buyout/merger."

i) would be great. iii) would be nice if over $1.5 per share. As for ii) I doubt that GTCB would do a financing currently at these pitiful prices. They do not need it that bad and they can always go to LFB for an additional "loan" if need be. The last financing was done at $0.87 I believe (although it had warrants associated with it that made the actual price much lower effectively). I do not anticipate GTCB making another financing at this range or below anymore and I expect that they will wait until we cross $1 decisively before effecting another financing...
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stockdak

08/08/08 6:13 PM

#13563 RE: DewDiligence #13519

I just listened to the CC.

In the introduction Dr. Cox talked about programs that were "building a substantial company".

Then there are the concluding remarks.. blah blah "challenging.." blah blah "come through in some style."

Are these comments a CEO with something on the stove or are they so much boilerplate commentary? DD seems to feel these are the something-up-my-sleeve variety comments. I couldn't say otherwise as I have not listened to as many CC's as DD. I came away from it thinking they would sign an FoB deal in the near term. However I have been led down that that "near term" path before with GTCB.

Then there are the amended change-of-control agreements. This does seem to point to buyout conversations but could this also be something they just got around to taking care of? Murky.

Even without that there are two possible PRs to come within 60 days; 1. Ovation deal closes and 2. BLA accepted by FDA for review. Hopefully these alone continue to boost the stock price.