Replies to post #65103 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

EMEA Assessing Tysabri PML Cases

[The EU accounts for 40-45% of current Tysabri sales.]

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINLD44617020080813

›Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:32am EDT

LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - The European Medicines Agency said on Wednesday it was assessing two cases of a potentially deadly brain disease reported last month in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients being treated with the drug Tysabri.

The London-based agency said it would then decide whether any changes were necessary to the currently approved label for product, which is made by Elan Corp Plc (ELN) and Biogen Idec Inc (BIIB).

Shares in both companies slumped following the July 31 news of the latest cases of the brain infection known as progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML).‹

[DewDiligence]

Tysabri still growing but growth rate is declining. Here are the numbers reported today by BIIB:

3Q08 worldwide Tysabri sales were $236M, +18% QoQ, +154% YoY.

The number of worldwide commercial patients on Tysabri at 30-Sep-2008 was 34,800, +12% QoQ, +118% YoY.

If the growth rate seen from 2Q08 to 3Q08 is maintained, it will take ten quarters — i.e. until the first quarter of 2011 — for Tysabri sales to reach the 100,000-patient goal set forth by BIIB and ELN.

Some analysts do not think the 100,000-patient target will ever be met: #msg-31249570.




<font size=3><font color=red> “The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”