Hi E!
That last wave from January to June ended in parabolic fashion (greater than 45 degree angle). Usually when parabolics break down, the lower Weekly Bband is tagged before a bounce occurs. If so, that would put it at around $110. These are just textbook theory thoughts so in the end it is just guessing at a likely outcome based on probability.
China's chart $SSEC is a PERFECT textbook parabolic breakdown related to Bbands. It hit the lower Bband, then had to tag the upper Bband one last time before it found resistance at the mid-Bband. To switch course, one should look for a tag of the upper Bband and then finding support at the mid-Bband.
Germany's parabolic ($DAX) did not come all the way down to the Bband, but instead retested the high and tagged the upper Bband one last time. It has had one of the stranger looking parabolic breaks. The formation looks less predictable at the moment.
Whether oil does it as perfectly as China remains to be seen.
Jan 4 - We have transitioned into a bear market. Completely different rules apply.
May 23 - IMO, any price at/above this close makes a great Nasdaq/SP500 short.
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