Replies to post #228280 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[Eric]

The CDMA/WCDMA (3G) Share Game & Royalty Rate

Rox,

Good post -- after several other one's here ...

... but I have a rather small quibble or two, but first ...

Yes: Korean manufacturers (Samsung, LG) have had a rate of 5.25% for handsets sold in Korea, and 5.75% for units exported outside Korea. {and ETRI raked a rebate at their expense]

<< I expect that both of those deals are now closer to 5% globally for all flavors CDMA >>

So do I, with probably some volume discount, sole source type incentives.

<< Motorola is close to 5%, but for a number of years they had a royalty sharing agreement with Qualcomm which would be a net lower amount than 5% (ended about 2 years ago) >>

I suspect the rate may be slightly lower because of the deal Mike Z. inked before the Freescale spin, and he gave Qualcomm exclusive on their CDMA2000 (and cdmaOne) chipsets. Not

<< SE - This one I don't have much visibility on....Sony was probably over 5, and E was probably closer to 4 >>

Probably about right, but Ericsson possibly lower because of an early (just after announcement) Qualcomm claimed grant of Ericsson WCDMA (not GSM) pass through, and probably a free ride on infra.

<< Chiner was 2% internal and over 7% for exports - I expect that both of those deals are now closer to 5% globally for all flavors CDMA >>

I think the original dual rate is history.

<< Your math on Nokia is flawed, as their market share for CDMA2000 barely got 10% through all the years of trying and now combining WCDMA is still less than 40% of the total CDMA2000/WCDMA market (what IDCC calls 3G).

Qualcomm's slides (SA source) in H2 2005 and H2 2006 credit Nokia with 13+% after they overtook Kyocera in the CDMA 4 slot in H1 '05, then Moto in the 3 slot shortly after. None of those 3 were doing high end like Samsung and to a lesser degree LG.

Unit share of IDCC's 3G (CDMA + WCDMA) is well less than 40%.

WCDMA ~40%, and CDMA ~5% (optimistically) right now.

<< Their GSM platforms still drive huge volume, and neither IDCC or Qualcomm will get royalties from them. >>

They will unit wise but

<< As most calculated, Nokia had a rate of ~4% up until this past week (due to some favorability in their 1992 license) >>

I suspect closer to 3½% after seeing the dueling statements of Q and N. If Q coulda got it at or above 4% in their rebuttal they woulda, IMO/

<< ....I expect now they are closer to 2.1-2.4% ... >>

That's a good guess, but a few of our more creative mates will find a way to pump it up to 5% before long so they can claim capitulation. <ggg>

- Eric -