Replies to post #324 on Investing in Timber

[belmontx]

A1 has taken the basic claims made by TATF for distributions to investors and shown them to be contradicted by other TATF claims and by his research into the growing and marketing of teak; it doesn't seem to me that cherry picking was done. You might want to read carefully - not speed-read - the posts. We all hoped then, like you do now, to find that all was well. If your investment was limited to one summer's earnings count yourself much luckier than most of the others on this forum.

[a1derfullife]

Matty05;

I have not 'cherry picked' the data on TATF's website. Rather, I have carefully read through all of the information provided on TATF's website (in particular the information provided in the various Tree Owners News), and performed calculations based on this information. Where necessary, I have interpolated or made estimates. I have asked Steve Brunner to provide additional information so that I can improve the accuracy of my calculations (for example, see posts 148 and 166), but he has declined to provide this information.

My calculations show that TATF's projections for return on investment are grossly optimistic, and have been for many years.

Further, my calculations show that the following statements made by Brunner in the summer 2007 tree owners news:

"For new and prospective tree owners, our notes to projections on our website say with respect to distributions that “An additional year or more may be required for the earliest thinnings” because young tropical hardwoods are unknown in the world markets.
For our most recent plantings our assessment is that that note won’t be necessary because Raleo will likely reach the point where it is utilizing the young lumber as fast as or faster than it comes from the farm well before the trees now being planted reach the age of their first thinning."

are absurd. The calculations clearly shows that Raleo is using timber from TATF's thinnings at a far slower rate than it is being produced by TATF - ie, more and more wood from thinnings is piling up. Even if Raleo increases its usage by a factor of 10, it will still be decades before all of the wood from TATF's thinnings is used up.

I suggest you carefully read and/or re-read the posts on this board.

A1