Bearmove, the same technical analysis has worked pretty well through the up and downs of the ups and down of the 2000/2002 bubble deflation period, and sure, many times the bottoms/top calls maybe be a little too early/too late, but almost invariably, such violent shakout resulted in equally violent rebounds (May 00 to July 00 40%, April 01 to May 01, 43%, Sep 01 to Jan 02, 66% October 02 to Dec 02 37%, and one bad call on July 3rd 02 that yielded only 8% before the TA reversed a week later). I am of the opinion that if it is not broke, don't fix it. Sure we have a lot of hand wringing here, and sure we need to have stops (I am putting together a list of stops on on the long positions I have later today) and the current model is tweaked to "bullish" behavior (since June of last year) which is slightly different than it was in the January 2000 to June 2003 period.
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