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Saturday, 05/08/2004 10:15:19 AM

Saturday, May 08, 2004 10:15:19 AM

Post# of 704044
Seems many are attempting to utilize technical analysis and prior dates as an indicator as to when this correction will end. I've made my case clear many times that I believe we would see rolling bubbles in the market from now on. I warned that we were in another bubble and we were going to experience a very ugly nose dive. Its my opinion that all those fancy TA indicating systems many use here simply won't work when a bubble is unwinding. Many also fail to look at outside indicators. Indicators like massive insider selling, Iraq, politics, consumer debt, Terrorist attacks and important date deadlines. The fact that Bush is in trouble even comes into play. If you really want a road map simply study the turn in the last bubble. Combine that with present outside indicators. Add in the fact that interest rates are now going to move up vs during the last bubble they were heading down. The election comes into play bigtime for this market yet whenever someone post about politics they're moved to the politics board. All these outside indications intertwine to form a complete picture as to where we are and where we're going. You can bet that this selling will end only to take us into another rolling bubble. This market is simply a giant casino and nothing will ever change that again. Live with it, use it but by all means try to understand it. TA tunnel vision has and will kill many good traders.
Believe it or not, this unwinding bubble correction is not over. Why? Because we're simply not seeing the fear needed to end this mess. We also have to many short term outside influences which will keep the buyers back. I recommended raising cash 2-3 days before this correction started. I still recommend staying in high cash levels. Look for value. Make sure that value has growth. Exactly why I bought JADE on Fri.

To many so called Guru's are looking at the same indicators. Look for those outside indicators and you will have the whole picture. When the VIX breaks thru 20-22 be prepared to buy.

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