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Stock Lobster

06/22/08 10:48 AM

#292785 RE: PASHA #292784

Journalists' fears could influence economy stories

June 21, 2008

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Washington -- Make no mistake, there is much malaise and worry in mainstream media newsrooms over the unprecedented economic and structural challenges facing journalism.

A related question is whether that malaise is affecting coverage of the overall economy and whether it is helping to paint a grimmer picture than actually exists. It might be impossible to quantify the embattled newsroom effect, but it's only human to wonder if it's contributing to the sour national psyche.

Unemployment is up, gas prices are rising, the stock market is down and families feel pinched by the price of staples like food and health care. And yet, as The Washington Post recently pointed out, unemployment, inflation and interest rates are not approaching the levels they were during energy shocks of the 1970s and 1980s.

Still, there is no denying that the headlines about the headline writers are particularly grim these days with traditional media companies reporting falling profits and layoffs and buyouts pummeling journalists where they work.

Traditionally, "newspapers are lagging indicators of the economy," said Tom Rosenstiel, director of Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism. But today, he said, the news business "faces a downturn and a revolution together."

For decades, when real estate or car sales or new hires lagged, advertising for them lagged but returned when the economy rebounded. That advertising stream carried the freight for American journalism for well over a century. But even before Sept. 11 and the challenges since, advertising and news was migrating to the Internet. Traditional newspaper companies, including my employer, Gannett, were struggling for a share of this new pie.

Economist Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, said that except for the late 1990s, there has been largely stagnant growth in real income since 1973. He said it was "preposterous" to suggest journalists were overstating economic doom because of what is going on in their own industry.


"People were not feeling particularly great about how well things were going even before the crisis hit the financial markets and before gas hit the roof," Teixeira said.

But newspaper people are human, too. And it would be human to extrapolate the layoffs and downsizing in their midst to the overall coverage, and shape coverage and commentary around it. Additionally, there is a spirited presidential campaign going on in which aspirants for the Oval Office have been talking economic doom and gloom for months.

These conditions, coupled with the headline-grabbing double team of rising energy and food prices, are conflating into one of the sourest atmospheres since the "misery index" of the late 1970s.

Pocketbook stories of $4 gas or $4 milk are what journalists are trained to look for to humanize the news. But there may be macro factors that mitigate these higher prices. Computers, for example, cost less for doing more than they did five years ago. And cars that get 40 miles a gallon are more abundant than they were when gas was $2 a gallon.

Rising energy and food costs provide "the kind of person-on-the-street evidence that journalists are especially sensitive over," Rosenstiel said. "But economists might say, 'well, actually."'

Rosenstiel compared what's going on in newsrooms to the difference between voters in Ohio and North Carolina. Ohioans, whose economy is worse than that of North Carolinians, might be understandably more negative about the country's direction and the economy as a whole, Rosenstiel said.

Similarly, "people in newsrooms are feeling gloomier about the economy and the future than people might be in Silicon Valley," he said.

Can journalists set aside personal worries for clear, analytical coverage of the economy? Only they can answer that. Here's hoping we'll find a way to keep asking the questions.

Contact GNS Political Writer Chuck Raasch at craasch@gns.gannett.com
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Stock Lobster

06/22/08 10:49 AM

#292786 RE: PASHA #292784

Journalists' fears could influence economy stories

June 21, 2008

Read Comments(1)Recommend Print this page E

Washington -- Make no mistake, there is much malaise and worry in mainstream media newsrooms over the unprecedented economic and structural challenges facing journalism.

A related question is whether that malaise is affecting coverage of the overall economy and whether it is helping to paint a grimmer picture than actually exists. It might be impossible to quantify the embattled newsroom effect, but it's only human to wonder if it's contributing to the sour national psyche.

Unemployment is up, gas prices are rising, the stock market is down and families feel pinched by the price of staples like food and health care. And yet, as The Washington Post recently pointed out, unemployment, inflation and interest rates are not approaching the levels they were during energy shocks of the 1970s and 1980s.

Still, there is no denying that the headlines about the headline writers are particularly grim these days with traditional media companies reporting falling profits and layoffs and buyouts pummeling journalists where they work.

Traditionally, "newspapers are lagging indicators of the economy," said Tom Rosenstiel, director of Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism. But today, he said, the news business "faces a downturn and a revolution together."

For decades, when real estate or car sales or new hires lagged, advertising for them lagged but returned when the economy rebounded. That advertising stream carried the freight for American journalism for well over a century. But even before Sept. 11 and the challenges since, advertising and news was migrating to the Internet. Traditional newspaper companies, including my employer, Gannett, were struggling for a share of this new pie.

Economist Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, said that except for the late 1990s, there has been largely stagnant growth in real income since 1973. He said it was "preposterous" to suggest journalists were overstating economic doom because of what is going on in their own industry.

"People were not feeling particularly great about how well things were going even before the crisis hit the financial markets and before gas hit the roof," Teixeira said.

But newspaper people are human, too. And it would be human to extrapolate the layoffs and downsizing in their midst to the overall coverage, and shape coverage and commentary around it. Additionally, there is a spirited presidential campaign going on in which aspirants for the Oval Office have been talking economic doom and gloom for months.

These conditions, coupled with the headline-grabbing double team of rising energy and food prices, are conflating into one of the sourest atmospheres since the "misery index" of the late 1970s.

Pocketbook stories of $4 gas or $4 milk are what journalists are trained to look for to humanize the news. But there may be macro factors that mitigate these higher prices. Computers, for example, cost less for doing more than they did five years ago. And cars that get 40 miles a gallon are more abundant than they were when gas was $2 a gallon.

Rising energy and food costs provide "the kind of person-on-the-street evidence that journalists are especially sensitive over," Rosenstiel said. "But economists might say, 'well, actually."'

Rosenstiel compared what's going on in newsrooms to the difference between voters in Ohio and North Carolina. Ohioans, whose economy is worse than that of North Carolinians, might be understandably more negative about the country's direction and the economy as a whole, Rosenstiel said.

Similarly, "people in newsrooms are feeling gloomier about the economy and the future than people might be in Silicon Valley," he said.

Can journalists set aside personal worries for clear, analytical coverage of the economy? Only they can answer that. Here's hoping we'll find a way to keep asking the questions.

Contact GNS Political Writer Chuck Raasch at craasch@gns.gannett.com

http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080621/OPINIONS/806210322/1006/OPINIONS
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Stock Lobster

06/22/08 10:53 AM

#292789 RE: PASHA #292784

The stories I find are the ones crowding the pages of papers both national and local. It may well be, as the article I posted to you suggests, that we are seeing a feedback loop of negative press/negative events which is not an accurate reflection of the situation. There is definitely a selective focus going on

However, as we are trading the market, the market deals with perception, and currently, the perception is fairly gloomy. That gloominess may not be an accurate appraisal of reality, but it is going to influence how U.S. and global markets will trade for the near future. Does this suggest that a winning trade is to buy QID and QQQQ puts for August and October? Perhaps...

Of course things are never all black, or all white, and mood can begin to change for a number of reasons. I certainly hope the mood improves going into next year.

If the price of oil starts to come down, I think it will have a tremendous power to alleviate much of this anxiety. In fact, the price of oil is, I believe, the single largest factor in this negative downturn we are witnessing at the moment. Relief on that front, or even word of a cohesive energy policy and research into near term viable alternatives, could change perception fairly rapidly.

That is what I am personally hoping for; as FDR said 'the only thing we have to fear is fear itself'

The other reason to note the general mood and attitude of these articles is that we are in an election year, and this overall perception is going to have a major impact on the outcome of this year's elections. Given the sense a majority of americans that we are 'on the wrong track' ( http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hm7_MiQM3mSMMD4qYOaxGWoKTIJwD91DA4EO0) , whoever wins in November will be given a mandate for change. That change is going to alter the way we live and do business in the United States.

If you know what subjects are dominating the concerns of voters in battleground states, which are dominating the letters to senators and congressmen, then you will have a better sense of which direction we will be headed 6-12 months from now...something which helps when making investment decisions.









_______________________________________________________
If you take anything I say as advice, you're crazier than I am.

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skaka

06/22/08 11:09 AM

#292793 RE: PASHA #292784

No, just take your money out of the market, and let the stocks roll over.IMO
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Stock Lobster

06/22/08 12:19 PM

#292845 RE: PASHA #292784

UKT: U.S. regains investment favor as China, India lose appeal on inflation fears

China and India lose their appeal for investors on inflation fears

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 11:17pm BST 20/06/2008

The world's fund managers are pulling their money out of China and India at a record pace on mounting fears of inflation and are now more pessimistic about global equities than at any time in the past decade.


Are fund managers waving goodbye to investment in China?

The latest survey of investors by Merrill Lynch shows that Europe has become the most unpopular region, while Britain is still trapped in the doldrums.

But the big surprise is the sudden change in view on the emerging powers of Asia, as overheating and spiralling oil costs spoil the boom.

"World growth is slowing and yet central banks might still have to tighten monetary policy, that is what is scaring people," said David Bowers, the organiser of the survey. The vast majority of fund managers think earnings forecasts have lost touch with reality.

The exodus from China reached fever pitch this month as investors slashed their net "weighting" position to -58, down from -14 in May. The Shanghai bourse had already fallen by almost half since October.

The fund managers have been slow to sense the danger.

India fell to -63 as investors took fright at the country's budget and trade deficits. There is concern over a relapse towards Nehru-era policies after Delhi halted trading in a range of commodity futures and restricted rice exports.

The survey of 204 fund managers worldwide suggests that the love affair with emerging markets is going cold.

The net weighting was -63 for Chile, -47 for Taiwan, -37 for Korea and -32 for Poland.

Mr Bowers said investors no longer believe that the bloc has a grip on inflation. They are discriminating between the commodity producers and those that rely on imports of oil, minerals and food.

"Saudi Arabia is not the same as Turkey," he said.

Fund managers are still super-bullish on Russia, betting that the energy boom has life yet. A net 62pc are overweight oil and gas shares. The most hated trio are travel and leisure (-66), banks (-62) and property (-60).

Karen Olney, Merrill's European equity strategist, said oil is nearing its cycle peak. "Is the trade too crowded? Probably. As long as fundamentals remain strong, we retain our overweight stance," she said.

"The burning question is when to sell oil companies and move back to banks.

"We resist the temptation. The time is nearer when inflation rolls over, towards the end of this year and certainly into 2009."

A record number (net 29pc) are now underweight on European equities; many have switched into cash as they wait for the European Central Bank to inflict punishment - ever more likely after eurozone inflation reached an all-time high of 3.7pc in May.


After a decade of investment in China, fund managers are now pulling money out of the country rapidly

The ECB's chief economist, Jurgen Stark, said yesterday that the price spike was a "cause for alarm".

Mr Bowers said Europe is now facing a triple whammy as the downturn in global export markets combines with a strong euro and a monetary squeeze.

"Eurozone retail sales have been worse than in the US on a year-on-year basis and eurozone GDP growth has also been worse," he said. "If you look at Spain and Italy, and even France, they are very weak.

"The Fed has eased dramatically, but the ECB hasn't eased at all. It intends to tighten regardless of the consequences on growth. This is what is eating away at confidence in Europe," he said.

Merrill Lynch said fund managers were belatedly adapting to a global inflation shock that poses a serious danger to asset prices, and risks setting off "civil protest" in Argentina, Indonesia, South Africa and the Gulf states.

As the new story unfolds, America is coming back into favour, emerging as a sort of safe haven in a fast-changing world where trusted institutions command a premium. Investors are quietly rotating back into Wall Street - despite a chorus of pessimists. A net 23pc are overweight US equities, the highest since August 2001.

The long awaited "decoupling" has begun.

The United States looks like the winner after all.

Have your say

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/19/ccfunds119.xml
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Stock Lobster

06/22/08 1:05 PM

#292853 RE: PASHA #292784

FinWeek: Pensions for execs test new heights

The biggest SERP bennies go to...Joel Gemunder?



By Mark Bruno
June 16, 2008

When it comes to executive pensions, the biggest packages sometimes occur at the smallest companies.

While his public profile may not compare with the likes of, say, News Corp.'s Rupert Murdoch or Bank of America's Ken Lewis, the executive pension of Joel Gemun-der puts the longtime president and chief executive of Omnicare in a league of his own.

Mr. Gemunder, who has been with the Covington, Ky.-based geriatrics pharmaceutical services company for more than 40 years—including 27 years as president and seven as CEO—has accumulated pension benefits worth $69.2 million, the largest such package at any company in the Fortune 1000, according to an analysis of proxy filings conducted for Financial Week by compensation research firm Equilar.

Right below Mr. Gemunder, whose company ranks as the 386th largest in the Fortune 1000, come a collection of mostly notable names who have accumulated similar, albeit lesser, retirement benefits at blue-chip behemoths.

Robert Wright, the outgoing chief executive at General Electric, has an accumulated pension of $61.4 million, the second-largest of any executive, according to Equilar. His package is followed by the $60.3 million pension of James Mulva, Conoco-Phillips' chairman and CEO, with Mr. Murdoch's $58.4 million pension and Mr. Lewis' $52.4 million package rounding out the top five.

(These packages are generally composed of non-qualified, formula-based benefit plans, such as a supplemental executive retirement plan, or SERP, disclosed in the pension benefits section of a proxy, and do not include deferred compensation plans, noted Equilar senior researcher Alexander Cwirko-Godycki.)

Mr. Gemunder's pension puts Omnicare in a peer group where it might not usually find itself, one that includes some of the largest corporations in the world. GE and Bank of America, for example, had revenue of $168 billion and $117 billion, respectively, in 2007.

While Omnicare is not a household name, it's hardly a mom-and-pop shop: The company generated $114 million in earnings on $6.2 billion in revenue last year and employs more than 17,000 people.

It's also not the only middle-market player with a CEO whose pension ranks as one of the largest. For instance, William R. Berkley, chairman and CEO of W.R. Berkley, has an accumulated benefit worth $37 million, which registers as the 12th-largest executive pension. The insurance company earned $743 million on $5.5 billion in revenue last year and was the 423rd-largest public company in the U.S.

The median value of accumulated pension benefits for a CEO at S&P 500 companies is $6.1 million, according to Equilar. Compensation experts say there's a good reason why executives at mid-size companies can find themselves staring at outsize pensions.

“Size and performance aren't always the biggest factors in an executive's pension,” said Peter Oppermann, an executive compensation consultant at Mercer. “Their years of service and compensation can often be the major drivers.”

That could explain why Mr. Gemunder, 68, and Mr. Berkley, 62, have built up such large benefits. Mr. Gemunder has 43 years of service at Omnicare, and Mr. Berkley founded his company 41 years ago.

In many cases, comp experts explain, executive pensions are calculated using a formula that multiplies a CEO's years of service by a portion of their average compensation during a certain time period. Steven Hall, president of Steven Hall & Partners, a New York compensation consultancy, said companies tend to determine this average compensation level by looking at three to five years of an executive's highest pay period—which can include both base salary and annual incentives.

“Indirectly, this can bring performance into the picture,” Mr. Hall said. “But pensions tend to be a reward for loyalty and service more than anything.”

The Omnicare proxy doesn't divulge the exact compensation levels or formula used to calculate Mr. Gemunder's $69 million in accumulated pension values, and a spokeswoman wouldn't comment on anything related to his package that wasn't disclosed in the filing.

The proxy does, however, break down the accumulated value into three parts: $66 million in an excess pension plan, $3.1 million in a “SERP II” and $1.5 million in a general pension plan that was frozen in 1994.

Mr. Gemunder earned a base salary of $1.67 million last year but did not receive a cash bonus, according to the proxy. Omnicare's stock declined about 43% last year.

While there are still a good number of executives accumulating considerable pensions, Tim Bartl, vice president at the Center on Executive Compensation, expects the number of CEOs earning outsized retirement packages will soon begin to dwindle.

“As more companies are looking to pay for performance, they're giving executives more equity rewards and incentives, rather than guaranteed benefits,” he said, adding that when companies bring on new executives, many are now “evaluating whether or not these executive plans are a necessity.”

http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080616/REG/761349337



_______________________________________________________
If you take anything I say as advice, you're crazier than I am.