AI
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Sunday, June 22, 2008 10:53:03 AM
The stories I find are the ones crowding the pages of papers both national and local. It may well be, as the article I posted to you suggests, that we are seeing a feedback loop of negative press/negative events which is not an accurate reflection of the situation. There is definitely a selective focus going on
However, as we are trading the market, the market deals with perception, and currently, the perception is fairly gloomy. That gloominess may not be an accurate appraisal of reality, but it is going to influence how U.S. and global markets will trade for the near future. Does this suggest that a winning trade is to buy QID and QQQQ puts for August and October? Perhaps...
Of course things are never all black, or all white, and mood can begin to change for a number of reasons. I certainly hope the mood improves going into next year.
If the price of oil starts to come down, I think it will have a tremendous power to alleviate much of this anxiety. In fact, the price of oil is, I believe, the single largest factor in this negative downturn we are witnessing at the moment. Relief on that front, or even word of a cohesive energy policy and research into near term viable alternatives, could change perception fairly rapidly.
That is what I am personally hoping for; as FDR said 'the only thing we have to fear is fear itself'
The other reason to note the general mood and attitude of these articles is that we are in an election year, and this overall perception is going to have a major impact on the outcome of this year's elections. Given the sense a majority of americans that we are 'on the wrong track' ( http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hm7_MiQM3mSMMD4qYOaxGWoKTIJwD91DA4EO0) , whoever wins in November will be given a mandate for change. That change is going to alter the way we live and do business in the United States.
If you know what subjects are dominating the concerns of voters in battleground states, which are dominating the letters to senators and congressmen, then you will have a better sense of which direction we will be headed 6-12 months from now...something which helps when making investment decisions.
_______________________________________________________
If you take anything I say as advice, you're crazier than I am.
However, as we are trading the market, the market deals with perception, and currently, the perception is fairly gloomy. That gloominess may not be an accurate appraisal of reality, but it is going to influence how U.S. and global markets will trade for the near future. Does this suggest that a winning trade is to buy QID and QQQQ puts for August and October? Perhaps...
Of course things are never all black, or all white, and mood can begin to change for a number of reasons. I certainly hope the mood improves going into next year.
If the price of oil starts to come down, I think it will have a tremendous power to alleviate much of this anxiety. In fact, the price of oil is, I believe, the single largest factor in this negative downturn we are witnessing at the moment. Relief on that front, or even word of a cohesive energy policy and research into near term viable alternatives, could change perception fairly rapidly.
That is what I am personally hoping for; as FDR said 'the only thing we have to fear is fear itself'
The other reason to note the general mood and attitude of these articles is that we are in an election year, and this overall perception is going to have a major impact on the outcome of this year's elections. Given the sense a majority of americans that we are 'on the wrong track' ( http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hm7_MiQM3mSMMD4qYOaxGWoKTIJwD91DA4EO0) , whoever wins in November will be given a mandate for change. That change is going to alter the way we live and do business in the United States.
If you know what subjects are dominating the concerns of voters in battleground states, which are dominating the letters to senators and congressmen, then you will have a better sense of which direction we will be headed 6-12 months from now...something which helps when making investment decisions.
_______________________________________________________
If you take anything I say as advice, you're crazier than I am.
_______________________________________________________
If you take anything I say as advice, you're crazier than I am.
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