Zeev, we've got two big events coming up - Fed next week and CSCO's earnings May 11. Coincidently, May 11 is the Tuesday prior to op-ex week. That's been a good time to launch in May if we're below Max Pain.
Some things I'm looking at tonight indicate we may drop all the way to NDX 1380 and SOX 411 or so before this gives us any more than a 1-2 day oversold bounce.
NDX Max Pain is 1475 for May and SOX Pain is 490. I do recall in May 2002 we moved up 208 NDX points (18%) during the same window for op-ex as we have from CSCO's earnings next month. We did that in 6-sessions in 2002.
We could move all the way below the March lows and still have the chance to take care of Max Pain for May.
Happy Family Theory of Markets would have all the indices breaking the March lows since the SOX and NWX already have.
That's one scenario that's bearish near term, but bullish intermediate term. I have no idea what that means after May, but I just thought I'd throw this out there.
In edit. The drop from Jan-March took 46 sessions. We're tracking that drop at about 1/3 less time. That could also bring us into CSCO at a low and extremely oversold.
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