[Based on today’s news, I’ve upgraded Boceprevir to equal ranking with Telaprevir. Both drugs recently started phase-3 and they now appear to have comparable efficacy in the genotype-1 treatment-naïve setting.]
The following paragraphs are in descending order of likelihood of success. (Paragraphs 6 and 8 are “catchall” groupings that do not explicitly mention all of the applicable drug candidates within the grouping.)
1. Telaprevir (VRTX/JNJ; phase-3) and Boceprevir (SGP; phase-3). Both drugs are protease inhibitors and they have shown comparable efficacy in the genotype-1, treatment-naïve setting (#msg-31190433). Background posts: PROVE-1/2 trials made simple: #msg-29019931; PROVE-1/2 detailed results: #msg-28746843; overview of Telaprevir phase-3 program: #msg-26228377; Telaprevir interim results from ‘107’ study: #msg-28749322; Boceprevir starts phase-3: #msg-29474929.
3. Locteron (OctoPlus/Biolex; phase-2), a long-acting interferon made in transgenic plants: #msg-28786162.
4. Various oral agents in phase-1 or phase-2 trials that use an established MoA. These include TMC435350 (Medivir/JNJ; entering phase-2): #msg-28785830; R7128 (VRUS/Roche; phase-1b): #msg-28837612; and R1626 (Roche; phase-2): #msg-28821034.
5. The “other” interferons: Albuferon (HGSI/NVS; dose reduced in phase-3): #msg-26199740; IFN-alpha-XL (FLML; phase-1): #msg-28837983; and IFN-Lambda (ZGEN; phase-1): #msg-16610804. I’m excluding MAXY’s Maxy-alpha, which has been on life support since Roche dropped the program: #msg-24801678.
6. Miscellaneous very-early-stage compounds that use an established MoA; e.g. IDX184 from IDIX: #msg-28715477, #msg-26915921.
7. GS9190 (GILD; phase-1), which has caused QT-prolongation: #msg-24268443.
8. Miscellaneous early-stage compounds that use novel MoA’s; e.g. Sirna-034, now owned by MRK: #msg-12665661.
JMHO, FWIW
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