Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

SGP / Boceprevir – The bottom line is that these results are comparable to the treatment-naïve results for Telaprevir seen in VRTX’s PROVE-1 and PROVE-2 trials.

Although the Boceprevir SVR data have not yet been reported for the 48-week arms, we already have enough data to see that adding Boceprevir to SoC increased SVR relative to SoC alone by about 20 percentage points in the short-duration arms (24-28 weeks). We know this because the SVR rate for the 48-week control arm cannot exceed the reported SVR12 rate of 38%, and it will in all likelihood drop a little further to, say, 35-36%; SVR in the 24-28-week Boceprevir arms was 55-56% (hence the delta of 20 percentage points).

The delta relative to SoC seen in VRTX’s PROVE-1 and PROVE-2 studies was also 20 percentage points (#msg-29019931).

p.s. When the prior results from the Boceprevir trial were reported in April, I argued in #msg-28863807 (while rebutting one the worst articles ever from Adam Feuerstein) that Boceprevir could end up showing show results comparable to Telaprevir, even as some of the loudest VRTX bulls tried to tell me I was out to lunch.




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