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littlefish

05/07/08 11:57 PM

#63441 RE: chevdawg18 #63440

chev, as far as hurricane plays I agree with the dilute dilute dilute. DPDW is much more than a hurricane 'stock'. It is a couple steps above true garbage like ECCI, etc... (sorry for offending whomever).
But I know my largest holding right now had to borrow on an adjustable rate that was at 7.25% to start the year but is now down to 5%. But that is a company wiht a long operating history so less speculation tied to it than something lie DPDW.
I've seen pretty typical interest rates of 7-8.5% in this interest rate environment for micros but it totally depends on biz leverage, book value, op history, industry, etc... etc...

I think even something like RGMI (that went under basically) had interest rates better than DPDW's, but they also had the share dilution thing going and ARs growing faster than revs. ARs outpacing revs is a red flag in my book since the RGMI days LOL and one that has worked several times in keeping me out of trouble, DPDW has that flag on them currently. There are several others. Doesn't necessarily mean they are bad investments, but if I see ARs grow faster than revs for 3 straight Qs I won't touch the company no matter what. Just my rule. Although Rawnoc made good sense in pointing out to also watch the % change betweeen the two ratios to look for positive (or negative) change.
PS- last year I routinely got nautious looking at 'hurricane plays' because of their financial nightmares LOL.
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mystic krewe

05/08/08 12:11 AM

#63443 RE: chevdawg18 #63440

chev, the commercial financing barometer is typically NY prime. depending on the risk, percentage points are added or subtracted. hence the terms prime + x, or x below prime. now, that's "regular" business banking, and the prime rate currently stands at 5.0%. A typical commercial real estate construction loan might currently be priced at, say, prime + 2 or so. We are so far from that kind of banking it's not even funny. A regular bank would not typically take bonus stock for collateral, regardless of the discount. Your question is another one that Mr. Haag might be able to either handle, or point you to someone who can give you investment banking rates based on risk type. If they base off prime, it must be like prime + 10 or so. Note also that although the fed recently cut the rate by .25, lending rates did not correspond, and the yield curve is steepening. that's right, rates are actually inching upward now, even when the fed cuts. None of this answers your question, but it was the only shot i had of saying something tonight i know a very small amount about. are you still drinking?;)