mjfdl, I am not sure what "good reasons" you are referring to. My idea of positive is a positive portfolio. Whether I go postive by going long or going short is irrelevant to me. I don't think it is "doom and gloom" to state facts or opinions about the direction of the market for a given time frame. It is important to avoid the trap of throwing in long with the buy and hold strategy. It works sometimes and other times it doesn't. The fund managers and brokers want you to do that and tell you they can guarantee you the good old 8-11%, but look at the markets during the 50's and 60's. It is possible for a guy to use the buy and hold and just ride those waves up and down and at retirement time find that the market is right where it was when he started. Because the market moves in cycles, I think we are about to enter another 20-30 year period like that. This current recovery is mostly debt driven and, regardless of whether rates go up or not, the American people only have so much room left to go into debt any deeper. I think that is observable data, not gloomy speculation.
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