Taking the timing less literally.
Doesn't change my assumptions all that much.
Case 1: 30%, $40
Case 2 15%, $10
Case 3: 55%, $15
Case 4: 0%, $8
Case 1/2: same as before 2x1 ratio.
I think a 1/3rd chance the new filing will fully satisfy the FDA is reasonable.
Case 4: Just don't see that as a possibility.