Replies to post #62194 on Biotech Values

[Jonathan Robinson]

I have passed the koolaid phase and have exited and now have totally different views at this point. I think the case valuations are very, very high (all four of them) and think the odds are too optimistic.

I personally think appropriate prices are:

1. $35 (always will have teva trying) 20%
2. $20 40%
3. $10 25%
4. $4 (old low - look at put pricing, etc.) 15%

Wrap it up and fair value is $18.10 a year out. That is what makes a market. No position today other than a few short puts (Jan 09 and Jan 10 as well as a few Junes - all sold a long time back and worth next to nothing other than the Jan 10 $5 puts which are worth $1-2.

Jon

[zipjet]

Dew - you are 50 cents too high.

:-)

I do think that if the partnering of M118 goes well it will become an increasingly important to valuing MNTA. It would even be the dominant value if should case 3 or 4 come about.

ij