I agree with your timeline Chrome (wow, to actually agree with the Chrome man... mark this one down in the calendar).... 10-20 years, and yes, the US is significantly behind Japan on the fiber to the home front (it's got a lot to do with density).
When 52MBs is available over copper, at current ADSL distances from the CO, and the telcos begin taking entertainment business from the cable operators, the ecomonics of broadband over copper greatly benefit copper over fiber to existing homes. The profits associated with bringing in an extra dollar of service business on a monthly basis (incremental profit growth) to the telcos is enormous. Being able to double or better the avg services fees per line, for those customers that choose to bundle services from a telco, makes most telcos drool.
Time will tell....
Oh, and I agree with your views on Tom Cooper too... I do believe he will bring an entirely new set of capabilities to NVI, not to mention contacts that NVI needs to move their tech into the market quickly.