Replies to post #62074 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

We’re in agreement that Telaprevir is the betting favorite vs Boceprevir—by a wide margin.

I think we’re also in agreement that Feuerstein did a lousy job of reporting the comparative results. Regards, Dew

[DewDiligence]

>…on the 20% increase basis, the control group is going to need to be extremely hard to treat and get a number perhaps as low as 32% SVR, and perhaps as high as 37%.<

It looks like it will be 35-36%, but it could be a little lower or perhaps a point higher.

>However you cut it, that would be a very tough control group to treat…<

Yes, your explanation is the correct one: the patient pool in the Boceprevir trial was clearly harder to treat than the patent pool in the PROVE-1 and PROVE-2 studies. That’s why Boceprevir’s 55-56% SVR in the short-duration arms is very impressive.



Let’s talk biotech!
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”