LaoTsu, I definitely understand your frustration and doubts here. We have had to re-examine our beliefs about the truth after what has occurred with the stock price and what hasn't occurred with the business over the last 2 months. FWIW, here are my thoughts about your comments:
"Unexpected PR's and incredible surprises...
Position of leadership.....
Right."
I agree that the proof is in the results, and we haven't seen them yet. I do think their leadership position technology-wise has been implicitly endorsed IMO by the collaborations we've seen with Sonic, Pioneer, and Primera. I suspect also that it the absence of any competitor matching their claim to be able to actually demonstrate production of CSS-enabled DVDs on demand, which is the REQUIREMENT for the major studios to endorse MOD, is also significant. I also think the few industry articles on the subject give some decent credibility to Titlematch as being well-positioned in terms of the technology, though such insiders could be bamboozled by a slick campaign. In the end the partners to me provide the greatest credibility factor. As such, I think the elements are there for business success and given the size of the market--for unexpected and incredible surprises. But, you are right to be skeptical.
I have some doubts too, though am pretty comfortable with my conclusions. If I'm wrong it will be a major blow to my self-confidence regarding investing, and it will probably forever change my investing style. I've already learned some painful lessons about convertibles that I'll never forget.
"The reason that this has collapsed from .17 in January to .015 today is that there are no deals confirmed at all. "
I think the reason for the collapse was 100% due to 30 million shares being sold in two days, the first day being the day a change in the law regarding share holding periods went into effect, Feb 15, 2008. The reason the price has REMAINED low is the lack of clear confirmation and detail indicating that business is great other than assurances from the company, when such confirmation was expected...ie failure to deliver what was expected which caused the price to increase from about 3 cents to 20 cents in the last month of 2007.
"The PR's that hinted at a deal that has not happened have not been backed up with PR's that explain WHY the deals have not happened. There is not a single kiosk up and running to my knowledge... why not? Why not at least have a smaller chain up and running?? Why not several smaller deals?"
No recent PR's have discussed small or large deals. Communication from the CEO no agoracom.com has discussed the large retailer deal, and the trial with Peapod was discussed in an article on contentagenda.com. The timing isn't that strange: From the Peapod PR: "But even the strongest advocates for ‘media on demand’ say it will be some time in 2008 that pilot programs are finally deployed around the country. “When is the soonest it could happen? First quarter is the soonest, but a lot would have to happen for that to occur,” said Jim Wuthrich, Warner Bros. senior VP of digital distribution. “Still, as I understand it, they’re working on the drives and getting that in play.”
One of the most definitive mention of a "deal" that I have found (other than on the Zable site which actually mentions that the retailer has over 5000 locations) is in that same PR: "TitleMatch also will begin testing a pilot program with a major retailer in 200 stores, said Litchhult, adding that she can not yet name the retailer." The CEO's comments in March on agoracom.com seem to confirm a relationship, but I admit is very vague.
Assuming they aren't just yanking our chain, I can only conclude that the are primarily doing all they can to get the national retailer trial going in an actual store and doing it right from the get go.
"This absence of info has been legitimately understood to mean that the deals, if any, are in major doubt. And the financing, and the late reporting just adds to the angst."
I can understand this point of view, though this means the CEO is misleading us as to the quality and progress the retailer program.
"Positive thinking is appreciated, BUT... show me the beef, even if it is just a small hamburger patty, before you start talking about $1/share. That just sounds like pumping.
No offence."
I'm sorry that came across as pumping. I've said since the beginning that these numbers come from a speculation that I believe may only have a 50-50 chance of coming about, due to the many factors that are unknown and yet unproven. If I'm wrong about their business position, the price will remain at a penny or worse. If I'm right, I stick by my projections.
ted
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