Replies to post #5712 on Dendreon Corp fka DNDNQ

[DownTheStretch]

I'm going out on a limb here, with a board that I think is slightly negative on sentiment regarding the success of Provenge. I've read everyone's opinion, and think highlyh of all of you, especially the smarter statisticians, and my feeling is that this board is less than 50:50 regarding Dendreon's chances of success.
However, I just believe that Gold, Schiffman and company know a little more than the rest of us regarding existing trial data. So, despite the fact that I have not been happy with Dr. Gold's decision making in the past, I think that Dendreon is eventually going to have it's day on the positive side. It may not go to $50 or $100/sh, but it's going to go up significantly 3 to 5x its current value. That'll be enough profit for me.
So, I'd like everyone to look at what happened to Google tonight. It's up $75/sh after hours on a stellar earnings report. Sentiment on Google over the last month, from some of the best analysts and internet specialist was almost 90% negative. So much for those who were expected to know the most.
JHMO.....I'm still postive on the company with 9800 shares.

[DewDiligence]

>how did pushing the interim back help the final alpha allocation? It should have hurt it.<

Even DNDN concedes that the alpha for the final analysis and the power of the final analysis are lower under the new SPA than under the old SPA. The only question is how much lower.

The alpha of the final analysis has not been disclosed under either the old SPA or the new SPA but the power of the final has been: according to DNDN, it dropped from 90% to 88%.

Some posters (e.g. ocyan) take these numbers at close to face value while other posters (e.g. iwfal and I) think the SPA change was more injurious to 9902b’s chances than DNDN is letting on.

[iwfal]

So, if the trial was always using OBF, how did pushing the interim back help the final alpha allocation? It should have hurt it.

I'd have to play with OBF to completely answer your question but perhaps some simpler scenarios will provide some insight:

1) If you keep the alpha for an interim constant then as you move the interm to the right (towards the final) then the alpha you can assign to the final goes up. So if the moving an OBF interim to the right drives down the final alpha it is because OBF allows greater and greater alpha to an interim as it moves to the right.

2) If you keep the alpha for an interim constant and move the interim to the right the power of the trial goes up.