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akasidney86

03/25/08 10:20 PM

#3952 RE: quantumdot #3949

You are trying to make this about what element of the trial he was referring to, or the number of times the phrase was used and, in doing so, I submit that you have lost the overall point. That is, experienced and trustworthy CEOs do not say things like "slam dunk" with regard to ongoing clinical trials. Period.

Actually, the only thing I'm trying to make this about is the facts... and speaking of them, at least in the CC in question, JP didn't do exactly what you just accused him of doing in the above quote (and the accusation that was the inference in the conflation of Dews and Clarks comments), that being that he referred to an ongoing clinical trial as a 'slam dunk'. Yes, he repeatedly stated that the efficacy of the drug (not the safety) was 'overwhelming', but I didn't hear him characterize in any way any ongoing clinical trials. Not with 'slam dunk', not with 'overwhelming', not with any type of qualifier. To state that he did is indeed to make up facts, and to try and clear up that assertion doesn't make me a 'defensive contortionist'.

I'm not trying to defend JP. He's neither my hero, my guru, or my favorite CEO. If he walked past me on the street I wouldn't know him from Adam. And as to whether his track record concerns me... sure. What I don't believe, however, nor do I see any reason to believe, is that his particular bio-bio has been anything but bad luck. As I said in a prior post, there are pilots who have landed gear up, and those who will. I suspect that nearly every CEO of any bio that has actually ever achieved anything has suffered reverses, setbacks, delays and explosions over the years... happens in the best of companies. As to whether JP's history is incidental, coincidental or downright suspicious... each of us will have to decide. I'd just like that decision to be based upon the facts, and not on message board sleight of hand.

On a separate note, please don't take this conversation personally. I've read your posts for a long time, and have almost always found them informed and informative. I just thought that your comments in this case were off base.
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DewDiligence

03/26/08 12:32 AM

#3957 RE: quantumdot #3949

>…experienced and trustworthy CEOs do not say things like "slam dunk" with regard to ongoing clinical trials. Period.<

They do not use such a characterization for planned clinical trials either.

akasidney86 would have us believe that the existence of many zeros to the right of the decimal point in the p-value of an early-stage trial gives the CEO a license to prime investors by using the phrase slam dunk. This shows an astonishing naiveté about statistics and the biotech arena in general.

Right off the top of my head, I can think of two prominent drugs that had a long sequence of zeros to the right of the decimal point in their phase-3 p-values and yet almost didn’t make it to market. (Hint: one was rejected by an advisory panel and the other was rejected by a major regulatory body on the first review cycle.)